DATA PREVIEW: GDP WILL REBOUND FOR Q3, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH

By Kevin Kastner WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – After the 31.4% plunge in second quarter GDP, there is no doubt that economic growth partially rebounded in the third quarter, data to be released Thursday will show. Consumption, home building and business activity all improved drastically from the lockdown-period of the previous quarter. But it will be a […]

DATA FLASH: US MANUFACTURING CONDITIONS EXPAND FURTHER

–ISM Mfg Index Falls Slightly to 55.4 in September, Below Expectations–Aug Construction Spending Stronger Than Expected;, Residential Surge–Personal Income Falls on Waning Benefits; PCE Gains Slowing–Initial Claims Decline Further; Continuing Claims Lowest Virus Count By Kevin Kastner WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The September ISM index Thursday showed U.S. manufacturing sector activity expanded further, but at a […]

STATUS CHECK – AT LAST, ANOTHER ROUND OF PANDEMIC RELIEF – ALMOST

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Wednesday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes. Suddenly the clouds are parting and a compromise on another round of pandemic relief money is now the expected outcome of further talks between Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin Thursday. The Capitol newspaper Roll […]

DATA FLASH: US JULY PERSONAL INCOME TICKS UP, PCE GROWTH SLOWS

-US July Personal Income +0.4% After -1.0% in June, Savings Rate 17.8%-Nominal PCE +1.9%, Real PCE +1.6%; Core Prices Rise 0.3%-Real PCE Tracking 36.6% SAAR Above Second Quarter Average-Chicago PMI Trims to 51.2 in August from 51.9 in July-August Michigan Sentiment Revised Up to 74.1, Ahead of 72.5 in July By Kevin Kastner WASHINGTON (MaceNews) […]

DATA PREVIEW: STIMULUS GRIDLOCK, COVID CUTS INTO CONFIDENCE

By Kevin Kastner WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The inability to pass new stimulus measures in the face of rising COVID-19 cases likely had a dampening effect on consumer confidence in August, even as interest rates have hit rock-bottom, gasoline prices are low and with the U.S. stock markets to a large extent having eclipsed their pre-COVID […]

DATA FLASH: US JUNE PERSONAL INCOME DROPS AS STIMULUS WINDS DOWN

–US June Personal Income -1.1% After -4.4% in May–Savings Rate 19.0%, Nominal PCE +5.6%, Real PCE +5.2%, Core Prices +0.2%–Chicago PMI Jumped to 51.9 from 36.6 in June, Highest Since May 2019–July Michigan Sentiment Index Revised Down to 72.5, Well Below 78.1 in June By Kevin Kastner WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Personal income fell further in […]

Updating CBO’s Economic Forecast to Account for the Pandemic

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office update text of pandemic-related economic assumptions posted Friday morning by CBO Director Philip Swagel: CBO expects that the economy will contract sharply during the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the continued disruption of commerce stemming from the spread of the novel […]

MAY US WAGES DECELERATE; MFG/CONSTRUCTION NEARLY FLAT

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The unexciting May jobs report, though no disaster, reinforced the perception of trend deterioration Friday, with the deceleration in earnings the leading negative, followed by the lifeless manufacturing and construction numbers. Total payrolls growth was well below expectations with its 75,000 increase, while revisions to March and April subtracted 75,000 jobs from […]