US ISM Manufacturing Remains in Contraction in April as Trump Tariffs Choke Demand, Prompting Firms to Slash Output, Shed Payrolls amid High Costs
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 48.7 vs. 49.0 in March, Above Consensus (47.9)–ISM’s Fiore: Tariff Concerns Account for 82% of April Survey Comments vs. 67% in March, Overshadowing Any Kind of Demand Comment–Fiore: Don’t Think US in Recession but PMI Indicates Moving in That Direction–Fiore: Not a Tariff Fan; Firms Won’t Invest, US Consumers Will Pay […]
Preview: Japan Q1 GDP to Post 1st Contraction in 4 Quarters as High Costs Keep Consumers Wary, Exports Remain Flat amid Uncertain Global Growth Prospects
–Global Trade War May Lead to 2nd Straight GDP Slump in Q2 By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s gross domestic product for the January-March quarter is forecast to post its first contraction in four quarters, down a slight 0.1% on quarter, or an annualized 0.4%, in payback for a technical jump in net exports in […]
Canadian Prime Minister Carney Leads Ruling Liberal Party to Minority Win in Tight Race with Conservatives in Snap Elections
–Former Central Banker Calls for Unity to Fight Threat to Canada’s Sovereignty By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is projected to have led his ruling Liberal Party to a slight minority victory in general elections on Monday, defeating the main opposition Conservative Party by promising to build Canada into the strongest […]
FED’S BEIGE BOOK: Analysts See ‘Pre-Downturn’ Assessment of Tepid Economy Coast to Coast
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The Federal Reserve’s latest “Beige Book” survey Wednesday of economic conditions in all 12 Fed Districts reflected widespread uncertainty because of shifting trade policy, softening consumer spending and worsening outlooks that hinted at an economy on the precipice of a downturn. The following is the national summary and District-by-District snapshots from the […]
Japan Seeks to Tide Over Trade War by Shoring Up Consumption, Keeps Gradual Economic Recovery View Despite Mixed Business Sentiment, Rising Inflation Risks
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government maintained its cautiously optimistic assessment for the eighth straight month, saying the economy is expected stay on a “modest recovery” track, but highlighted the growing uncertainty around the world triggered by the protectionist U.S. trade policy under President Trump. In its monthly report for April released Friday by […]
BofA Global Research Fund Manager Survey: Trade War Jitters Sends Global Growth Expectations To Record Low
— Global Recession Largest ‘Tail Risk’ in 15-year Survey History By Vicki Schmelzer NEW YORK (MaceNews) –Trade war jitters sent global growth expectations to a record low in April, according to BofA Global Research’s monthly fund manager survey, released Wednesday. At the same time, “trade war triggering a global recession” was viewed as the biggest […]
UPDATE: TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY: AS DUST SETTLES FOR NOW, BEHEMOTHS CHINA AND USA FACE OFF
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – As U.S stocks rocketed up spectacularly Wednesday after President Trump’s pivot on tariffs, the battle of titans – the USA and China – emerged as the main event for months to come. At an afternoon White House event, President Trump said, “Somebody had to do it,” vs. China. A more skeptical former […]
ISM: US Services Sector Slips in March on Surging Costs amid Trump Trade War, Controversial Massive Federal Spending Cuts, but Clings to Growth
–ISM Services Index at 9-Month Low of 50.8 Vs. 53.5 in February, Below Consensus (53.0)–Employment Subindex Plunge by 7.7 Points Sharpest Since Early Pandemic Phase of April 2020–ISM’s Miller: More Industries Are Concerned About Impact of Tariffs–Miller: Canadian Boycott of US Goods, Services Having Immediate Impact–Miller: Services Sector Shows Some Strength from Overall Viewpoint By […]
US TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY: Pres Trump Imposes Massive Global Tariffs Likely to Cause Widespread USA Price Hikes
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Amid much pessimism about severe economic domestic consequences, President Trump Wednesday imposed massive tariffs on several dozen countries including China and the European Union and a blanket 10% levy on all the rest. The Rose Garden announcement shook stock futures into large negatives while interest rates maintained lows last hit in October. […]
FOMC: Standstill Policy Statement Accompanied by Dot Plot Assumptions Still for Two Rate Cuts This Year
WASHINGTON (MaceNews): The Federal Ope Market Committee Wednesday provided no surprises in its latest policy statement and the dot plot of participants still saw two rate cuts this year. The text of the statement follows: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at […]