ISM: US Services Sector Slows on Weak Demand, Soft Hiring and Rising Costs as Tariffs Begin to Bite
–ISM Services Index 50.1 Vs. 50.8 in June, 49.9 in May, Below Consensus 51.5–ISM’s Miller: Employment Index’s Continued Contraction, Faster Rise in Prices Index Worrisome–Miller: Expansion in Business Activity, New Orders Indexes Highlight Resilience of Services Sector–Miller: Firms Wary of Impact of an Expected Fed Rate Cut as Inflation Remains High By Max Sato (MaceNews) […]
Preview: Japan Q2 GDP to Post Only Slight Growth after 1st Contraction in 4 Quarters in Q1 as Fear of Trump Tariff Fallout Peaks
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s gross domestic product is forecast to be nearly flat, up just 0.1% on quarter, or an annualized 0.4%, in the April-June quarter, at the peak of the fear that the protectionist U.S. trade policy could plunge the global economy into a tailspin. The forecasts range from a 0.1% drop […]
Japan Weekahead: Real Wages Continue Falling, Household Spending to Show Sluggish but Resilient Consumption Ahead of Expected Slight Q2 GDP Rise
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese economic events for the coming week. Following the widely expected no change in the Bank of Japan’s policy stance last week, demand side data is expected to show lackluster but somewhat resilient consumer spending. Economists didn’t wait to see June and second quarter household spending […]
US TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY: New Reciprocal Tariffs Don’t Dispel Uncertainty, Confusion
–Trump Fires Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because of alleged manipulation By Denny Gulino WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – With new reciprocal levies raising America’s average tariff rate to above 18% and the latest jobs and ISM reports raising stagflation fears, the overall era of uncertainty seems to have intensified, not diminished. The environment of […]
US ISM Manufacturing Falls Deeper into Contraction amid Slow New Orders, Still Fragile Output, More Job Cuts, Elevated Costs
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 9-Month Low of 48.0 vs. 49.0 in June, Consensus 49.5–ISM CEO Derry: Despite Wall Street Pricing in Imminent Rate Relief, Manufacturers Need to See Actual Cut Before Resuming Capex By Max Sato (MaceNews) – U.S. manufacturing activity was in contraction for the fifth straight month in July as President Trump’s idea […]
US TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY – List of countries and their “reciprocal” tariff rates imposed at midnight (Switzerland 39%; UK 10%)
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Countries and Territories Reciprocal Tariff, Adjusted Afghanistan 15%Algeria 30%Angola 15%Bangladesh 20%Bolivia 15%Bosnia and Herzegovina 30%Botswana 15%Brazil 10%Brunei 25%Cambodia 19%Cameroon 15%Chad 15%Costa Rica 15%Côte d`Ivoire 15%Democratic Republic of the Congo 15%Ecuador 15%Equatorial Guinea 15%European Union: Goods with Column 1 Duty Rate1 > 15% 0%European Union: Goods with Column 1 Duty Rate < 15% […]
FOMC Keeps 4.25-4.50% Funds Rate; 2 Governors Dissent in Favor of Cut
– Governors Waller, Bowman Preferred Immediate 25 Basis Point Rate Cut – Powell: ‘More Neutral’ Policy May Be Justified If ‘Downside Risks’ To Jobs Increase – Powell: For Now ‘Moderately Restrictive’ Stance Leaves Fed ‘Well-Positioned’ By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – Once again, Federal Reserve policymakers refused to lower short-term interest rates Wednesday in the […]
US TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY: EU Signs On; China, Not Yet; Tariff Regime Fragile As Most of the Transition Lies Ahead
By Denny Gulino WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Thursday’s 10a ET oral arguments in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit is one of the several legal challenges of President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” a stark reminder that much of the entire U.S. tariff regime could suddenly collapse, requiring the refund of all the billions of […]
Bank of Canada Pauses for 3rd Straight Meeting amid Sticky Core Inflation, Resilient Economy and Uncertain Trade Row Impact on Growth, Prices
–BOC Keeps Policy Rate at Roughly Neutral 2.75% After 7 Rate Cuts Totaling 225 Basis Points from June 2024 Until March 2025BOC: May Need a Rate Cut If Slower Growth, Easing Trade Friction Lead to More Controlled Inflation–Governor Macklem: Still Proceeding Carefully, Hard to Be as Forward-Looking as Normal–Mackem: Taking Policy Decision One Meeting at […]
TRANSCRIPT: Fed’s Powell Stays Away From Promises of a September Rate Cut
.WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is a rough transcript of Wednesday afternoon’s post-FOMC meeting news conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has been running somewhat above our 2% […]