US ISM Manufacturing Back in Growth at Start of 2025, Waking Up from More Than 2 Years of Doldrums on Cyclical Pickup in New Orders, Output, Jobs
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 50.9 Vs. 49.2 in December, Again Well Above Consensus (49.5)–ISM’s Fiore: Upward Help from Seasonal Adjustments in January 2025 Half of Those in January 2024–Fiore: Trump Tariffs Won’t Help US Firms; Doesn’t Make Sense to Pay Duties on Own Goods Made in Canada, Mexico–Fiore: Demand for US Manufacturers Sees Cyclical Rebound […]
Preview: Japan’s Goldilocks Economy to Post Modest 0.3% Q/Q GDP Growth in Q4 as Consumers Stay Frugal amid High Costs, Exports Sluggish in Face of Struggling China, Slowing US
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s gross domestic product for the October-December quarter is forecast to post its third consecutive growth but a sluggish 0.3% rise on quarter, or an annualized 1.3%. The main growth driver came from a rebound in net exports that was caused by a fall in imports and masks weak exports […]
FOMC Pauses Rate Cuts Amid Uncertainty About Economic, Policy Outlook
– Powell: FOMC ‘In No Hurry’ To Adjust Rates; Policy, Economy ‘In Good Place’ – Powell: Need to See ‘Further Progress’ On Inflation; Watching Labor Market By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – After cutting interest rates at three consecutive meetings, the Federal Reserve’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee kept them unchanged Wednesday and gave no […]
Bank of Canada Slows Rate Cut Pace to 25 Basis Points, Instead of Pausing amid Easing Inflation, in Pre-Emptive Strike Against Fallout from Trump Tariffs
–BOC Decides to End Quantitative Tightening; To Restart Asset Purchases in Early March–Governor Macklem: We Are Long Way from Needing Quantitative Easing–Macklem: USD/CAD Affected More by US Trade Policy Uncertainties Than by BOC’s Cumulative Rate Cuts By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada trimmed its policy interest rate – the target for overnight […]
Preview: Bank of Canada Set to Slow Its Rate Cut Pace to 25 Basis Points Wednesday While Seeking Shelter from Imminent US Import Tariff Storm
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada is widely expected to trim its policy interest rate – the target for overnight lending rates – by a “more gradual” pace of 25 basis points to 3.0% on Wednesday in a pre-emptive move to help shield the economy from the threat of stiff tariffs on […]
Analysis: Bank of Japan Taking Another Step Forward but Still Halfway Toward Brave New World of Paying Interest on Loans
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Bank of Japan policymakers have taken another step forward with their third rate hike this cycle, but they are still only hallway through their mission of hauling the economy from the lukewarm super-low borrowing costs toward the brave new world of paying normal levels of interest on loans. At its […]
Japan’s Government Keeps Modest Economic Recovery Outlook as Trump Takes Office with No Clear Date for Stiff Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico, China
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government maintained its overall assessment that the economy will stay on a “modest recovery” track as elevated costs for food and other essentials have eroded real wages and firms and markets brace for Trump tariffs on U.S. imports from its close trading partners. In its monthly report for January […]
BofA Global Research Fund Manager Survey: Investors Pare Equity and Bond Longs as Growth Optimism Wobbles
–Investors Reallocate into Eurozone Stocks By Vicki Schmelzer NEW YORK (MaceNews) – Global investors pared equity and bond holdings in January, as growth optimism wobbled at the start of 2025, according to BofA Global Research’s monthly fund manager survey, released Tuesday. A net 8% of those polled in January looked for a weaker global economy […]
Fed Officials Continue Cautious Monetary Policy Mood in Wake of December Data
By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their sense of caution about the future course of monetary policy in wake of a surprisingly strong December employment report, which was widely interpreted as greatly diminishing hopes for interest rate cuts this year. Officials were already speaking hesitantly about resuming monetary easing, variously calling […]
UPDATE: Fed Officials Take Cautious Approach to Further Rate Cuts As Late Jan FOMC Nears
– Harker Still Sees Rates Heading Lower; But Now ‘Appropriate To Take A Pause’ – Collins Calls for ‘Patient Approach to Policy’; Cuts Could Go Faster or Slower – Schmid: Funds Rate May Already Be ‘Neutral;’ Favors Further Balance Sheet Shrinkage – Bowman Urges ‘Caution;’ Monetary Policy Not As Restrictive As Some Think By Steven […]