–-Initial Claims +135,000 to 1.106 Mln In August 15 Week
–-Philadelphia Fed Index Falls to 17.2 in August from 24.1 in July
–-Leading Indicators Index Rises 1.4%/July, But Suggests Recovery Slowing
By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The future of the enhanced jobless claims program remains uncertain as talks between the Administration and Congress have gone silent, but new filings turned higher in the most recent week.
At the same time, this week’s manufacturing conditions data have suggested a slower pace of expansion – and that’s in states where COVID cases have been brought under control.
The level of initial claims rose by 135,000 to 1.106 million in the August 15 employment survey week, well ahead of the 963,000 level expected, though still below the 1.422 million level in the July 18 survey week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Initial claims had declined in the previous two weeks by a combined 464,000, which many attributed to the expiration of enhanced Federal benefits. The expectation was for the level of claims to remain high but continue to slowly decline until the stimulus could be extended.
The four-week moving average for initial claims fell by 79,000 to 1.176 million in the current week and should decline further as higher levels roll out of the four-week window.
Unadjusted claims rose by 52,776 in the current week after a sharp decrease in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment factors expected a further decline in the current week. Gains in Rhode Island, California, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.
The Labor Department reported that 542,797 workers filed under Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance on an unadjusted basis in the current week, up from 489,639 in the previous week.
Through the August 1 week, the most recent available, there are 11,224,774 people on PUA assistance across all programs.
The level of continuing claims fell by 636,000 to 14.844 million in the August 8 week, a third straight decline and the tenth decline in the last 11 weeks. The expiration of PPP stimulus and rising COVID-19 cases could return many rehired workers to the benefits programs.
In other data released at the same time, the Philadelphia Fed index fell to a reading of 17.2 in August after falling to 24.1 in July. While the index still indicates expansion, the slowdown was steeper than analysts had expected.
The new orders, shipments, and employment measures all declined to small positives in the month, while the six-month outlook improve only modestly.
The Empire State index also declined in the month, remaining only slightly into positive territory. Other regional data will be released ahead of the national ISM measure on September 1, with data from Southern states recently hit by COVID resurgence most closely watched.
Released later in the morning, the Conference Board’s leading index rose by 1.4% in July following larger gains in the previous two months.
The index suggests continued improvement, but the Conference Board said that it appears the recovery “appears to be losing steam” and that economic activity could weaken again to end 2020.
The largest single factors in the increase were, not surprisingly, a longer factory workweek, a surge in building permits, and a further decline in initial jobless claims.
Falling new orders and lower consumer expectations were the key negatives in the report.
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Contact this reporter: kevin@macenews.com.
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