WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The upcoming week is packed with economic data, including the fourth quarter GDP, as well as a Federal Open Market Committee policy update and Chair Jay Powell’s news conference, and an update to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.
The GDP report is Thursday. The various GDPNow estimates don’t agree, with the New York Fed’s on the low end at 2.58% and the Atlanta Fed way up at 7.5%. On Friday, the personal income report will have been incorporated in the previous day’s GDP measure, and so not of much interest. Moody’s Analytics checks in at 6.1% and the consensus seems to be around 4%, all of it a big deceleration from the snapback third quarter’s 33.4%.
A little more current is Friday’s December durable goods report. November’s revised durables measure showed a 1.0% increase following October’s 1.8% gain and down 5.9% from 12 months through November. The entire week’s lineup of data is below.
The final University of Michigan sentiment survey is also Friday morning as well as the NAR’s pending home sales report. December’s existing home sales total maintained the kind of standout growth that has been the case for the entire last quarter of the year, an annualized rate of 6.76 million. The month as well as the year as a whole were the best since 2006.
The supply situation, though, is critically underperforming, in December the lowest on record. The median price is up 12.9% from a year earlier. On the plus side the year saw homeowner equity in the U.S. climb by $9 trillion.
Not to be ignored is Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s news conference even though no one anticipates any real action. Foremost Fed correspondent Steve Beckner, in 4,000 well-chosen words, previews the meeting elsewhere on the macenews.com site.
Speaking of macro outlooks, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook gets an update at 8a ET Tuesday. Back in October the IMF saw 2021 growth at a positive 5.4%, six and a half percentage points lower than the outlook seen before the pandemic.
Upcoming Data and Events
25th More than 100 S&P 500 firms report earnings this week
25th Monday 830a Chi Midwest mfg index
25th Monday Dallas Mfg 10:30a
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26th 8a IMF’s WEO update
26th Tuesday 8:55a Redbook
26th Tuesday 9:00 Case-Shiller Home Price Index
26th Tuesday 9:00a FHFA Home Price Index
26th Tuesday 10a State-by-state unemployment
26th Tuesday Dallas Fed non-mfg index
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27th Wednesday 7a MBA mortgage applications
27th Wednesday 8:30a Durable goods orders
27th Wednesday 10:30a EIA oil stocks
27th Wednesday 2p FOMC policy statement
27th Wednesday 2:30p Fed Chair Powell news conference
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28 Thursday 8:30a 4Q GDP
28 Thursday 8:30a Advance US trade in goods
28 Thursday 8:30a jobless claims
28 Thursday 10a New Home Sales
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29 Friday 8:30a Personal Income
29 Friday 8:30a Employment Cost Index
29 Friday 8:30a Personal income/spending
29 Friday 9:45a Chicago PMI
29 Friday 10a Final UMich sentiment
29 Friday 10a NAR Pending Home Sales
29 Friday 1p Baker-Hughes Oil Rig count
Separately, Extract Analytics looks at the week ahead for the SPX:
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com.
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