DATA PREVIEW: RETAIL SALES AND INFLATION MEASURES

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Economic data in the week ahead includes the December retail sales report, along with the two major inflation measures, the CPI just a week from Inauguration Day and the PPI but market participants are unlikely to pay much attention.

The major stock indexes were propelled back into record territory Friday, in part by the “trillions” President-elect Joe Biden said in the afternoon will have to be spent battling the virus and restoring the economy. The House of Representatives is expected to introduce an Article of impeachment Monday. With so much going on month-old data seems a little stale.

Except for the mighty jobs report which Friday documented the renewed slowing of the economy but nevertheless was ultimately overwhelmed as a market influence by the promise of a second-half rebound, reinforced by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s comments.

Retail sales climbed out of the pandemic pit in June and through November were running 4.1% ahead of a year earlier although down 1.1% for the month. The disparities among categories remained massive chasms. Food and drinking places were down 17.2% vs a year earlier, for instance, with department stores off 19% while the e-commerce category of non-store sales were ahead 29.2%.

On the inflation front, Clarida reminded in his Friday remarks that the set of quarterly expectations formulated at the last Federal Open Market Committee saw “a little more than half of participants judged risks to be broadly balanced for economic activity” while “a similar number continued to see risks weighted to the downside for inflation.”

Breakeven inflation expectations have moved to be a tiny bit above 2% while consumer inflation in November saw a flattening of its predominant driver, the shelter category, seemingly pushing the other way.

Separately, from Extract Analytics, the outlook for the upcoming weeks SPX:

— Content may appear first or exclusively on the Mace News premium service. For real-time delivery contact tony@macenews.com. Twitter headlines

Share this post