- Cites Slower Wage-Price Trends; Hopeful of Avoiding Recession
- Fed Must Manage Risks Amid ‘Substantial Uncertainty’
By Steven K. Beckner
(MaceNews) – Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard said Thursday that a slower pace of monetary tightening will allow the Fed to “probe for” a level of interest rates that is “sufficiently restrictive” to bring down inflation, while keeping an eye on divergent economic risks in a highly uncertain environment.
Brainard, speaking to the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, did not specify whether the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee will continue to decelerate monetary tightening at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, but her comments certainly allowed for that possibility.
She spoke optimistically about the Fed’s ability to slow inflation without tipping the economy into recession this year, but conceded that “worse outcomes” are possible.
Brainard stressed the FOMC’s commitment to reducing inflation to 2% and keeping inflation expectations “anchored” around that level, and she cited recent wage and price data that she said are moving in that direction.
Her comments come in wake of signs of slowing economic activity and reduced inflation that have heightened speculation that the FOMC will continue to decelerate monetary tightening on Feb. 1.
At its mid-December meeting, the FOMC followed four straight 75 basis point increases in the federal funds rate with a 50 basis point rate hike that left the policy rate in a 4.25% to 4.50% target range – a 4.3% median. The FOMC said “ongoing” increases would be needed to get the funds rate to level that is “sufficiently restrictive” to reduce inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.
FOMC participants in December revised up their projections for 2023 from 4.6% in the September Summary of Economic Projections to 5.1% in the December SEP. Individual projections ranged from as low as 4.9% to as high as 5.6%, and 17 of the 19 officials projected the funds rate will need to go above 5% to become “sufficiently restrictive.”
After giving cautiously optimistic comments about the economic outlook, Brainard said she and her colleagues “are committed to restoring price stability.”
“The FOMC moved policy into restrictive territory at a rapid pace and subsequently downshifted the pace of increases in the target range at its most recent meeting,” she said in prepared remarks. “This will enable us to assess more data as we move the policy rate closer to a sufficiently restrictive level, taking into account the risks around our dual-mandate goals.”
At the same time, she noted that the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet – actions which she estimated are equivalent to 50-75 basis points of tightening.
Brainard focused on the lags with which monetary tightening takes full effect in explaining why the FOMC has slowed the pace of rate hikes after 425 basis points of rate increases from March through December.
“It takes awhile for monetary tightening to flow through (to the economy), she said in response to questions. “Right now …we moved very quickly… Now we’re in restrictive territory, and we’re probing for a “sufficiently restrictive level of rates.”
She said she and her fellow policymakers are “confident that inflation will come down over time” and said “the more data we have the better we’ll be able to assess that.”
Asked about varying views on the appropriate pace of rate hikes, Brainard said, “We will have an opportunity to talk about that at the end of this month and the beginning of February….We usually have very extensive discussions of the data and what does it mean.”
Brainard reiterated that last year the FOMC “raised rates rapidly to keep inflation expectations well-anchored” and that “once we did that in December we downshifted a bit” in recognition of monetary lags.
“We wanted to probe for the sufficiently restrictive level of the policy rate,” she went on, adding, “that logic is very applicable today.” A slower pace “gives us the ability to absorb more data..in a very uncertain environment…to better land at a sufficiently restrictive level.”
Asked about the risk of tightening monetary policy too little, Brainard replied, “All the work we do is an exercise in risk management. … When moving very rapidly to restrictive territory to where monetary policy restrains economic activity and inflation, it’s important to demonstrate that resolve … so that people understand” that the Fed is determined to reduce inflation to 2%.
But she added that no that policy has become restrictive, “the risks are more two-sided; there are risks on both sides.”
Brainard prefaced her policy commentary with an evaluation of the economy weighted toward moderation of economic growth coupled with disinflation.
“Inflation has been declining over the past several months against a backdrop of moderate growth,” she said. “Yesterday’s industrial production index points to a significant weakening in the manufacturing sector, and the retail sales report points to a further moderation in consumer spending.”
She said “the drag on U.S. growth and employment from monetary policy is likely to increase in 2023 because of transmission lags from the rapid, large swing from accommodation to restraint in 2022.”
“Given the speed and magnitude of the swing in the stance of monetary policy, the lagged effects of earlier accommodation likely offset some of the initial effects of tightening over the course of 2022, and it is likely that the full effect on demand, employment, and inflation of the cumulative tightening that is in the pipeline still lies ahead,” she continued.
“That said, there is uncertainty about the timing and magnitude,” she added.
Many Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have expressed concern about continued tight labor markets and their impact on wages and in turn service prices. But Brainard sounded somewhat more sanguine.
“Recent declines in average weekly hours, temporary-help services, and monthly payrolls growth suggest tentative signs that labor demand is cooling.” she observed. “Despite constrained supply, wages do not appear to be driving inflation in a 1970s-style wage–price spiral.”
“There are tentative signs that wage growth is moderating,” she said. “Growth in average hourly earnings has softened recently – stepping down to 4.1 percent.”
Brainard went on to say, “There is some recent evidence that the persistent components of inflation in core goods and non-housing services, particularly transportation, recreation, and food services and accommodation, have behaved similarly, peaking around early 2022 and steadily declining since then.”
Other officials have lately been endorsing a continued deceleration of monetary tightening, though not unconditionally.
Earlier Thursday, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins said, “Now that rates are in restrictive territory and we may (based on current indicators) be nearing the peak, I believe it is appropriate to have shifted from the initial expeditious pace of tightening to a slower pace – though appropriate policy will, of course, depend on a holistic review of available data.” She had previously indicated she is leaning toward a 25 basis point move.
On Wednesday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gave nuanced comments on how she intends to approach monetary policy as a 2023 FOMC voter. She indicated she would favor a further slowing of rate hikes on Feb. 1, but said that doesn’t necessarily mean the funds rate will stop rising once it reaches the 5.0 to 5.25% range. She strongly suggested the Fed might need to go higher and cautioned against doing too little. And if financial markets react adversely to a slower pace of rate hikes, Logan said, the FOMC might have to adjust up its projections for how high the funds rate should go.
“I supported the FOMC’s decision last month to reduce the pace of rate increases, and the same considerations suggest slowing the pace further at the upcoming meeting,” she said, adding that she doesn’t “ see the argument for a slower pace as depending very much on the latest data. Nor should a slower pace signal any less commitment to achieving our inflation goal.”
Logan said “a slower pace is just a way to ensure we make the best possible decisions. We can and, if necessary, should adjust our overall policy strategy to keep financial conditions restrictive even as the pace slows. For example, a slower pace could reduce near-term interest rate uncertainty, which would mechanically ease financial conditions. But if that happens, we can offset the effect by gradually raising rates to a higher level than previously expected.”
“My own view is that we will likely need to continue gradually raising the fed funds rate until we see convincing evidence that inflation is on track to return to our 2 percent target in a sustainable and timely way.” she said.
A week ago, voting Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker explicitly said 25 basis point rate hikes “will be appropriate going forward.”
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Contact this reporter: steve@macenews.com
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