By Steven K. Beckner
— Economy far From Strong Labor Market; Downside Risks Predominate
— Doesn’t Foresee Sustained Pick-up In Inflation
(MaceNews) – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strongly suggested Wednesday that the Fed will reduce the pace of its bond buying only very gradually, with ample warning and not anytime soon.
Powell, in a webcast hosted by the Economic Club of New York, underscored the need to continue providing a “patiently accommodative monetary policy” by observing that the U.S. economy remains “very far from a strong labor market” and by downplaying risks of excessive inflation.
Although the Fed’s “base case” for the economic outlook is “positive,” he said he and his colleagues on the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee are primarily focused on “downside risks.”
In addition to holding the federal funds rate near zero, the FOMC plans to continue purchase of $120 billion per month in Treasury and agency mortgage backed securities until it sees “substantial further progress” toward its maximum employment and average 2% inflation objectives.
Asked about concerns that the Fed’s asset purchase program is greatly ballooning the Fed’s balance sheet and bank reserves, Powell said aggressive bond buying is an important part of the Fed’s effort to support recovery and that the FOMC currently is “not thinking about shrinking the balance sheet.”
Powell said the Fed will eventually return to a balance sheet that will be “no larger than it needs to be to meet public demand for our liabilities,” though not as small as it was before the pandemic, but he emphasized this regression will occur “gradually with tons of transparency and not beginning anytime soon.”
Powell suggested the FOMC has a long ways to go before it can make a determination that “substantial further progress” has been made – sufficient to begin tapering asset purchases.
In prepared remarks devoted to “Getting Back To A Strong Labor Market,” he said, “Despite the surprising speed of recovery early on, we are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are broadly shared.”
“In the past few months, improvement in labor market conditions stalled as the rate of infections sharply increased…,” he observed, adding that “as some sectors of the economy have continued to struggle, permanent job loss has increased.”
In keeping with the Fed’s revised monetary policy strategy, he vowed, “We will not tighten monetary policy solely in response to a strong labor market.”
As for the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate, where the FOMC has said it expects to keep the funds rate in a zero to 25 basis point target range until inflation exceeds 2% “for some time,” Powell sounded
no more eager to tighten.
Although former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, among others, has warned that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies could ignite inflation, Powell pointed to three decades of “global disinflationary forces” and said that while “those things are not permanent … . It’s hard to make the case why they would evolve very suddenly.”
As the very low inflation numbers of last March and April pass out of the year-over-year statistical comparisons and as demand picks up, Powell said measured inflation probably will increase, but he said those increases are “not going to be very meaningful.”
“There could be some upward pressure on prices,” he said, but “my expectation is that they will be neither large nor sustained.”
If he proves wrong and inflation and inflation expectations do rise in a more “troubling” way, Powell said the Fed “has the tools” to address that and “will use them.”
But for now, he said “the risks seem to be to the downside,” and Fed policymakers’ focus is “the need to guard against downside risks.”
Therefore, he said the FOMC is not prepared “to move to modify our policy or even think about withdrawing our policy support” until it is more confident that risks are not skewed to the downside and the economy is on track toward meeting the Fed’s employment and inflation goals.
Without directly advocating for any particular fiscal programs, Powell repeated that fiscal stimulus is “essential” in addition to the Fed’s efforts to ensure recovery.
He said now is not the time to worry about the debt-to-GDP ratio when the economy remains “weak.” Wait until the economy is strong to bring the deficit and debt under control, he advised.
Some have warned that the Fed will have to take into consideration the higher cost of financing the national debt if and when it raises interest rates, but Powell said, “We’re a long way from where we’d have to take into account the government’s ability to finance itself.”
The Treasury’s debt-funding needs “do not enter into our discussions at all,” he added.
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Contact this reporter: steve@macenews.com.
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