-€300 bln bonds to mature this year
-Key reforms at stake
-New ‘ruling pact’ with 5 Stars Doubtful
By Silvia Marchetti
ROME (MaceNews) – If Italian premier Mario Draghi fails to secure a new ‘ruling pact’ with the belligerent 5 Stars Movement on Wednesday, his departure would trigger early elections, months of political stalemate, and surging borrowing costs, warned ruling coalition sources.
“The spread will spike, alongside borrowing costs, making our public debt less sustainable, while we will miss out on some EUR 30 billion in EU pandemic aid … and competition reforms about to be cleared. Also, the next budget law due in October will not have the full fiscal power it requires because it will be defined … last-minute, by the next government,” said a Democratic official.
After last week’s rupture within the ruling coalition when the 5 Stars Movement declined to support at a key government decree, Draghi will address both branches of parliament on Wednesday and then face a vote of confidence to see if the 5 Stars are open to a new “deal” that may guarantee him “the certainty of governability until 2023,” explained a League source, when the next general vote should be held, with a stable majority.
If all attempts fail and Draghi departs, Italy will face three months of paralysis, with early national elections no sooner than end of September or early October, and a new government in working mode not before November.
According to the Italian constitution, parties are entitled to 60 days of political campaign once Italy’s president dissolves parliament.
Draghi offered his resignation last week but head of state Sergio Mattarella ordered him to stay on and seek a solution in parliament. The prime minister remains skeptical he can re-launch his partnership with the 5 Stars and has stressed he would not rule a second cabinet if there are no longer grounds for a stable coalition.
However, sources believe there could be room for a compromise in the form of a “binding majority alliance document” to be approved in a vote of confidence. Much depends on how the 5 Stars will act, as it has been weakened by an internal schism, and on the degree of Draghi’s patience.
Draghi the votes in parliament to win – 85% of support – but he’s not interested in sheer numbers. He wants political guarantees from the 5 Stars that it will not keep on hindering his policies and allow him to do his job as he sees fit. Meanwhile, the other ruling parties, bar the Democrats who are acting as mediators, aren’t keen to keep ruling with the 5 Stars, but neither are they eager to face an early vote over fears of a waning electoral support.
“It is paramount that Draghi’s vote of confidence occurs first at the lower house, where the pro-government 5 Stars wing is strongest, and then at the senate, where the hard core populists sit. It would send a clear message to the rest of the group that the members who count are all pro-Draghi, and hold key government roles,” an official said.
The 5 stars have already lost in two weeks some 90 members of parliament who have joined pro-government foreign minister Luigi di Maio in his new ‘Italy for the Future’ group, and more are ready to ditch the movement were its leader Giuseppe Conte to vote against Draghi.
According to a former 5 stars member who long ago left the group, Conte’s attack against Draghi is “a personal vendetta because Draghi replaced him as premier last year and Conte is still mad.” Also, many 5 stars don’t support Conte and are scared they won’t be re-elected for a second mandate if they stay, due to the movement’s internal candidacy rules.
Officials noted that Draghi has been receiving a lot of support to stay from mayors, teachers, doctors and European leaders and EU commission figures, and that this may push him to reconsider a second go.
Draghi’s sudden departure would hit Italy’s reputation on the world stage at a critical moment of pandemic resurgence and the prolonged war in Ukraine.
“Draghi has worked hard to reaffirm Rome’s euro-atlantic role and pave the way to alternative energy plans to cut our gas imports from Russia. Also, let’s not forget our huge public debt and the cost tied to a political crisis: in the remainder of this year some EUR 300-billion worth bonds and T-bills will mature,” said a Democratic official.