Consensus outlook for Mace News
Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Wednesday, Nov 11) The Bank of Japan releases the October corporate goods price index.
Mace News median: CGPI +6.5% y/y (range: +6.3% to +6.7%) vs. Sept +6.8%; +0.2% m/m (range: +0.1% to +0.5%) vs. Sept -0.3%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Continuing strength in raw material prices, including oil and industrial metals, along with the yen’s weakness, is expected to keep Japanese producer inflation above 6% on the year for a sixth consecutive month in October.
Producer inflation, as measured by the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), is forecast to rise 6.5% on the year in October, compared with a 6.8% increase a month earlier. The CGPI has remained above the 6% level since May, when it rose 6.8%. It reached 7.7% in July, the fastest increase since February 2023, when it rose 8.4%.
On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is expected to rise 0.2% in October, following a 0.3% decline a month earlier. In September, the monthly fall was led by lower prices for farm products, such as rice and pork. They fell 13.3% on the year in September following a 1.5% rise.
International crude oil and petroleum product prices remained high as geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the Middle East continued. Kerosene prices, for instance, were buoyant amid concerns over supply shortages, as oil-importing countries, including Japan, began securing supplies ahead of the peak winter demand season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Companies appear to be increasingly passing on rising transportation, logistics and labor costs to their final prices. Although the yen’s depreciation appears to have slowed, the currency stayed weak, keeping import prices and adding to their cost burdens.
In addition, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on October 29 that the government plans to gradually scale back its gasoline and other fuel subsidy programs from late December. If geopolitical tensions persist, the subsidy reduction would provide another factor pushing up domestic petroleum product prices in the coming months.
Higher naphtha prices are also adding to costs for petrochemical producers. Benzene, a basic material used in plastics, synthetic fibers and synthetic rubber, is among the products whose production costs can be affected by rising naphtha prices. Higher feedstock costs could eventually be passed on to downstream products, although the extent and timing would depend on market conditions and producers’ ability to pass on the increases.