–Imports Mark 8th Straight Y/Y Fall on Easing Energy Import Costs
–Exports to China Down for 12th Straight Month on Semiconductors; Pace of Decline Slows
–Exports to US Post 26th Straight Y/Y Rise; Those to EU Dip For 1st Time in 33 Months
By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Japanese export values came in weaker than expected, posting their first year-over-year slip in three months, down 0.2%, after a modest 1.6% gain in October, reflecting softer demand for iron and steel as well as chip-making equipment, but solid shipments of automobiles and semiconductors partly offset the decline, data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance showed.
Import values fell on the year for the 8th straight month, down 11.9%, as energy prices remain well below last year’s levels, but the pace of decrease decelerated further.
The trade deficit was smaller than expected but still widened to ¥776.9 billion from a revised ¥660.97 billion in October while narrowing from a large ¥2.06 trillion deficit recorded a year earlier.
Shipments to China, one of the key export markets for Japanese goods, posted their 12th straight year-over-year decline in November amid slow recovery in the world’s second largest economy, but the pace of decrease continued to decelerate. Slowing growth in the European Union led to the first drop in exports to the region in 33 months.
The key points from the MOF’s Trade Statistics:
* Export values rose 0.2% on the year in November after rising 1.6% to ¥9.15 trillion, the second highest on record, in October and climbing 4.3% to a record high of ¥9.20 trillion in September. Previously, exports fell 0.8% in August and edged down 0.3% in July, which was the first drop in 29 months. Exports have slowed from double-digit percentage gains seen last year. The latest figure was much weaker than the median forecast of a 1.9% rise (forecasts ranged from a 0.3% drop to a 6.5% gain). The decrease was led by a continued drop in semiconductor-producing equipment as well as declines in iron and steel and ships. Exports of automobiles and semiconductors posted solid gains.
* Export volumes fell 5.6% on the year in November after falling 3.3% in October and rising 0.7% in September, which was the first rise in 12 months.
* Import values fell 11.9% on the year in November for the eighth straight decrease after falling 12.5% in October, 16.5% in September and 17.6% in August and marking their first decline in 27 months with a 2.7% drop in April. It was larger than the median forecast of a 7.5% fall (forecasts ranged from 9.1% to 0.1% drops). The decrease was led by coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil as the prices for energy remain below year-earlier levels.
* Import volumes dipped 3.5% on year in October for the 13th straight decrease after sliding 3.2% in October and 2.6% in September.
* The trade balance came to a deficit of ¥776.9 billion in November after posting a revised deficit of ¥660.97 billion in October and a surplus of ¥65.4 billion in September. It compared with the consensus forecast of a deficit of ¥1.02 trillion (forecasts ranged from ¥1.46 trillion to ¥914.5 billion deficits) and a record high deficit of ¥3.51 trillion hit in January and a large ¥2.06 trillion deficit seen a year earlier. The ¥39.2 billion surplus in June was the first positive figure in 23 months.
* Exports to China, one of the top export destinations for Japanese goods, fell 2.2% on the year in November for the 12th straight decline. It followed decreases of 4.0% in October, 6.2% in September and 11.0% in August and their first drop in seven months in December 2022 with a 6.2% drop. The decline was led by lower shipments of semiconductors, food and organic compounds. Exports of semiconductor-producing equipment continued rising and those of autos and mineral fuels were also up. The recent trend is in stark contrast to the middle of last year, when shipments to China rose 12.8% to a record high ¥1.78 trillion in July 2022.
* Japanese exports to Asia as a whole slipped 4.1% in November for the 11th straight drop, following a 5.3 drop in October and their first year-on-year drop in 23 months in January, down 4.0%. The decline was led by iron and steel and ships but exports of semiconductors and autos recorded gains.
* Exports to the U.S., which have exceeded those to China since October 2022, recorded their 26th straight year-on-year rise, up 5.3% in November, following an 8.5% rise in October, a 13.0% increase in September and a 36.5% surge to a record high of ¥1.78 trillion in October 2022. The increase was led by automobiles and auto parts, as seen in recent months, as well as aircraft. Exports of metal processing machinery, construction/mining equipment and semiconductor-producing equipment declined.
* Shipments to the European Union posted their first year-on-year drop in 33 months, down by a slight 0.03% in November, following an 8.9% rise in October and a 12.9% gain in September. The decrease reflects lower demand for iron and steel, heating and cooling equipment as well as motorcycles, which was nearly offset by strong demand for solid demand for automobiles, ships and drugs.