By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Japan’s ruling coalition failed to clinch a majority in Sunday’s upper house elections, as widely expected, amid voter frustration over rising costs of living and a string of political funding scandals, just nine months after it lost a majority in the more powerful lower chamber of parliament.
It is the first time that the governing Liberal Democratic Party has lost a majority in both chambers of the Diet since its inception in 1955, which is expected to mount pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to step down.
The LDP’s setback came at a crucial time when Tokyo needs a solid government to keep negotiating with Washington for a trade deal and protect households and small businesses from elevated inflation around 3%, the highest among the Group of Seven major economies that is largely due to rising costs for processed food. The LDP has been blamed for having kept rice production low to shore up wholesale rice prices for farmers (formerly a key voter base) even after it officially ended its 46-year-old policy in 2018.
Ishiba, who has been leading the conservative LDP since September 2024, didn’t clearly say whether he would stay in power but indicated that is his plan by stressing that the LDP “must be aware of its responsibility to the state” as the party that still has the highest number of seats in the Diet.
Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), told the public broadcaster NHK, “Public opinion clearly said ‘no’ to the Ishiba administration.” Noda’s original Democratic Party of Japan ousted the LDP by sweeping the most post-war seats in the 2009 lower house general elections and ruled the country for about five years, following a victory in the 2007 upper house elections.
During the latest election campaign, Noda urged the government to exempt all foodstuffs from the 10% sales tax and scrap a special levy on gasoline and other fuels. Other opposition parties called for similar measures to support households.
The LDP and its small coalition partner Komeito are estimated by NHK and other news media to hold a combined 122 seats in the House of Councillors (47 contested seats and 75 uncontested), down sharply from 141 before the elections and falling short of the simple majority of 125. The LDP holds 101 seats (39 contested and 62 uncontested), down from 114, while Komeito reduced its seats to 21 (8 and 13) from 27.
The CDPJ secured 38 seats (22 plus 16), unchanged from 38 in the last upper house election in 2022 and lower than party leaders wished to see.
Half of the 248-seat, six-year term House of Councillors is up for grabs every three years. This year, 124 seats plus one in a by-election in the Tokyo prefecture were contested among 522 candidates. Of the 248 seats, 148 are in 45 constituencies while the remainder 100 are filled by proportional representation by qualified parties and non-affiliates.
Two parties in the opposition camp have surged in popularly in recent months, partly due to their simple, clear mandates and partly thanks to their active use of social media in relaying their policy messages to the voters.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), a more conservative spinoff of the Democratic Party of Japan (the other splinter is Noda’s CDPJ), is estimated to hold 22 seats (17 seats newly won plus 5 uncontested), up sharpy from 9.
Yuichiro Tamaki, who heads the DPFP, told NHK that voters supported this party’s call for increasing take-home pay by raising the annual taxable income exemption to Y1.78 million from Y1.03 million and abolishing the decades-old “temporary” special levy on gasoline and other fuels, which together were designed to provide permanent tax relief to many households, unlike an outdated idea of providing cash handouts, a tactic that has been often used by the LDP in recent years.
Tamaki noted the minority Ishiba government, desperate to win Diet approval of the fiscal 2025 budget, endorsed those DPFP proposals in December but failed to include them in the final, revised budget bills.
“We have no plans to support the Ishiba administration that does not keep promises,” he declared. “We cannot afford to be betrayed twice.”
The right-wing Party of Do It Yourself (Sansei-to) saw its seats climb to 15 (14 plus 1) from 2 under the election platform of “Japanese first,” fanning fears about foreign ownership of land and corporations in Japan and the entry of cheap labor from other countries. The party’s advance cost the LDP some ridings but it also undermined larger opposition parties’ efforts to unseat the ruling party in its strongholds.
Sohei Kamiya, who launched the party in 2020 and won his own seat in the upper house in 2022, is known for being anti-Covid vaccination and anti-globalization and has said it is natural to see politicians like Donald Trump rise to power as part of people’s opposition to globalization.
He told NHK that his party would consider teaming up with parties, whether they are in the ruling or opposition camp, if they have similar views on tax cuts and other policy measures to this party’s.
Kamiya said LDP politicians have wide-ranging views from right to left on the political spectrum, which is making it harder for voters to understand what the ruling party is trying to achieve. “I think there may be a breakup of the LDP in the future,” he said. “We want to form a new framework beyond the ruling and opposition parties.”
In October 2024 snap elections for the 465-seat House of Representatives, the LDP won 191 seats, down sharply from 256 seats. Komeito was also reduced by eight seats to 24. Together, the coalition holds only 215 seats, well below the lower house’s majority of 233. By contrast, the opposition CDPJ increased by 50 to 148 seats while the Democratic Party for the People also saw its seats rise to 28 from seven.