By Denny Gulino
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The German federal election proceeds as if the choices don’t matter all that much. Regardless of the personalities a relatively centrist coalition will finally endeavor to strike the path ahead, in Germany’s case, a path of least resistance – as long as it can. Climate, stability, prosperity.
Chances are, it won’t be that long. As European history especially shows, warring factions prepare for their inevitable conflict for years, as a foreshadowing peace leads in only one direction, to an end of that peace, in this case to the beginning of a new Cold War or something worse. Europe understandably doesn’t want to be a participant this time around and in Germany, Angela Merkel’s still sky-high approval ratings reflects her deep appreciation for caution.
Wait, is this another wild-eyed alarmist scenario? Or a realistic heads up about the challenges ahead, challenges that need to be met head on ahead of time?
As China girds itself into a new Sparta and President Xi hardens his country into the more masculine, harder edged version of itself, more able to endure the hardships to come, the United States also prepares itself by striving toward unity – as fanciful as that seems in its current fractious state.
There are many signs Trumpism has spent its aggressive energy and is becoming a chronic but passive presence in a system now inoculated against its worst potential outcomes. No, it doesn’t seem that way – yet. But threats to democracy have waxed and waned throughout America’s tangled history and the pendulum eventually swings back. Back from fractiousness is more unity, maybe not World War II unity or 1950s unity or American Legion-type unity but something different from a nascent Civil War.
As for President Biden, he hopes to keep stumbling ahead even though his administration seems snakebit, with circumstances delivering a new Pandora’s Box on the White House doorstep on a weekly basis. Afghanistan, the southern border, in faltering attempts to persuade the hesitant to get vaccinated and equally faltering efforts to fix price-hiking supply-chain disruptions, they give an adroit Jen Psaki a lot of batting practice. Still, goes the refrain, he’s not Trump. A lot of that will settle out and much larger issues will emerge from the cloudy background.
OK, reality check. President Biden and his closest advisers are firmly focused on China, just as China is firmly focused on Taiwan. As desperately as Germany tries to insulate itself from the pull of the 21st century’s tectonic shifts, the Europe of the dreamers, of the uncommitted, of the continued beneficiaries of the eddy currents between rushing waters, it’s not to last.
Biden is not the president of foolish endeavors, of trillions squandered on sideshows. President Xi is concentrating and impatient, sending dozens of his probing warplanes toward Taiwan every week. So near. So very far.
Inexorably the pressure mounts on the large and then not-so-large economies to join the proxy battles that precede the testing of wills that is to come, to join the trade wars and defense spending prioritizations and realignments that involve choosing sides or, for a time, trying supremely hard not to.
The first meeting of the “Quad” on Friday and Saturday in Washington was a ripple in the pond that more than hints of something big moving beneath the surface, one of the signals that the decade ahead will not be like the decade behind. The public emphasis on vaccines and climate was under the rubric of “Indo-Pacific” concerns, as if “Indo-Pacific” was a self-evident and natural grouping of common interests rather than a defensive grouping looking toward China.
“We will redouble our efforts to ensure that the Quad is a force for regional peace, stability, security, and prosperity,” its members pledged. “Towards that end, we will continue to champion adherence to international law, particularly as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the East and South China Seas.”
So the “Quad” of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia has already morphed into something bigger, with the sudden coalescence of “AUKUS,” with the UK already making its choices while Europe tiptoes around the edges. Australian naval bases will be huge complicating deterrence factors for China planners.
Within a few weeks the world has changed a little already, with France the first to recoil as what was once smooth becomes rough, as edges that weren’t inflamed are irritated. The pressure to make long-term choices escalates.
For the time being Germany and the United States can dwell on their distractions. Big distractions, in the case of America the divided, the indebted, the largely unvaccinated. Germany’s embrace of Nord Stream 2, can for now still holds its promise to relieve energy anxiety. Only later will it bear down as its own source of anxiety, removing some options. Germany’s ride, from the U.S. point of view a free ride, astride the eurozone, NATO and postwar Western consensus, continues – for now.
The luxury of distractions is likely to be a short-lived indulgence. There are assuredly shocks to come, sobering wake-up calls that eat away at fuzzy assumptions. Inevitably, the big picture will take on a distinct shape.
Those other nations that feel more or less secure by residing safely in the periphery – Brazil, South Korea, Canada, even Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Vietnam – will, like the UK and the Quad members do already, feel themselves more and more circling the gravity well of the biggest players. Safety will come to lie in alliances with their many tradeoffs.
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Contact this writer: denny@macenews.com. Opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
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