By Laurie Laird
ZURICH (MaceNews) – The U.S. economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, buoyed by a robust service sector and strong household spending, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
“The consumer’s in good shape, and the main expectation is not at all that there will be a recession,” Powell told a gathering in Zurich, hosted by the Swiss Institute of International Studies and the University of Zurich. Consumer spending jumped by an annualized rate of 4.7% in the second quarter, the fastest pace since the final three months of 2014.
The Fed chair sees no softening of the “strong labor market,” despite the release of weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll growth just hours before his address. Employment expanded by 130,000 in August, below the Wall Street expectations for a 160,000 gain.
However, Powell acknowledged “considerable risks around trade policy,” with the U.S. and China engaged in rounds of retaliatory tariffs on bilaterally-traded goods. Uncertainty relating to trade tensions accounts, in part, for the wide range of views held by members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee.
“We don’t have a lot of experience on trade policy,” said Powell. The “murky” outlook has stirred a “range of views” among FOMC members. The FOMC next meets on 17-18 September, and markets generally expect a 25 basis point rate cut.
Despite stubbornly below-target inflation, the Fed chair expressed optimism that inflation will soon “move toward [the Fed’s] target” of 2.0%. Inflation, measured by the core personal consumption price index, has steadied below target for much of the year, hitting an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter.
But Powell acknowledged the difficulty in stirring price pressure once low-inflationary expectations take hold. “We’re trying not to get on the road [of persistently low inflation] and to defend the 2% target. The Fed is conducting a year-long assessment of its inflation policy framework, engaging members of the public in its consultation.
Quiescent inflation has led to blunt calls for lower rates from the White House, with President Donald Trump repeatedly and publicly berating the Fed chair. Just hours before Powell’s Zurich address, Trump repeated criticism of the central bank, tweeting “Where did I find this guy Jerome? Oh well, you can’t win them all!”
Powell refused to be drawn by the president’s comments, repeating his assertion that the Fed remains a non-political institution. “We’re completely focused on our jobs. The Fed’s a very important American institution. What we do affects people’s lives.”
— Courtesy of MT Newswires