Consensus outlook for Mace News
Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Monday, Oct 12) The Bank of Japan releases the September corporate goods price index.
Mace News median: CGPI +7.6% y/y (range: +7.6% to +7.8%) vs. Aug +7.6%; +0.5% m/m (range: +0.5% to +0.7%) vs. Aug -0.2%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s producer price inflation is expected to stay elevated in September, holding close to its highest level in more than three years as prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept crude oil, petroleum products and chemical prices high. The yen’s weakness also continued to put upward pressure on import costs, lifting the country’s producer prices.
The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) is projected to rise 7.6% on the year in September, little changed from a month earlier. This would mark a 67th straight month of year-on-year rise, or over five and a half years of increase. In August, the index eased to a 7.6% rise from July’s 7.7%, which was the highest since February 2023, when it rose 8.4%.
Although the CGPI edged lower in August, inflation remained elevated amid higher petroleum and petrochemical product costs, while strong demand from artificial intelligence projects boosted global prices for memory chips and nonferrous metals. This trend is expected to continue in September, with higher international crude oil prices likely to push domestic petroleum and chemical prices higher.
Prices for other raw materials also remained firm, including steel products, iron scrap and alloys. Prices for steel and oil products, including naphtha and kerosene, also showed signs of rising in September, which is expected to keep producer prices elevated.
The yen stayed under downward pressure even as Japanese and U.S. authorities jointly intervened in the currency market around late July and early August and repeatedly talked up the Japanese yen. Still, the limited recovery of the yen kept producers’ prices buoyant.
On a monthly basis, the CGPI is expected to rise 0.5% in September, marking its first increase in two months after falling 0.2% in August, which was the first monthly decline in 12 months.