Consensus outlook for Mace News
Tuesday, April 7, 2026
0830 JST (2350 GMT/1930 EDT Monday, April 6) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the February average household spending.
Mace News median forecasts: -0.8% y/y (range:-2.9% to +0.5%) vs. Jan -1.0%; +2.3% m/m (range: -0.9% to +3.9%) vs. Jan -2.5%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s real household spending is expected to fall year over year for a third consecutive month in February amid signs of a broad slowdown in department store and supermarket sales, as well as declines in new passenger car registrations. The trend is underscored by February retail sales data, which posted the first year-over-year decline in two months.
Consumers remain cautious as real wages continue to fall. Recent spending trends suggest households are simplifying ceremonies and cutting back on weddings and funerals, while prioritizing food and other daily necessities. There is also a widespread shift toward more affordable mobile communication plans.
Household spending in February is expected to fall 0.8% from a year earlier after a 1.0% decline in January. The January drop was driven by a 10th consecutive year-on-year decline in both gift-related spending and mobile communication charges, as well as volatility in private university tuition fees.
Still, household spending is expected to rise for the first time in three months, increasing 2.3% month-on-month in February after slipping 2.5% in January.