Friday, May 29, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, May 28) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases April, and the outlook for May and June.
Mace News median: -1.0% m/m (range: -2.2% to -0.4%) vs. Mar. revised to -0.4% from -0.5%; +0.6% y/y (range: -0.5% to +2.3%) vs. Mar. revised to +2.4% from +2.3%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese Japan’s industrial production is likely to fall for a third straight month in April as war in the Middle East increasingly prompts shortages of some raw materials, including oil- and chemical-related products. The situation may be restraining output in downstream industries such as transport equipment and business-oriented machinery.
In addition, the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are stretching supplies of naphtha cracked from light (low-sulfur) crude oil, a source of ethylene, propylene and benzene, among other petrochemicals. These materials are essential for producing plastics and resins used in a wide range of consumer and industrial goods, from vehicles and appliances to paints and food packaging.
For instance, due to raw material shortages and naphtha supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Middle East, major Japanese snack maker Calbee Inc. is shifting many of its flagship products to simplified black-and-white packaging. The temporary design change is intended to ensure steady product supplies while conserving petroleum-derived printing ink. These kinds of moves are gradually spreading across many industries.
Industrial production in April is expected to fall 1.0% on the month, following a revised 0.4% decline in March.
Meanwhile, output is expected to rise for a fifth straight month on the year in April, up 0.6% after a revised 2.3% gain in March from the initial 2.4% increase.
In the previous survey released in late April, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) maintained its assessment that industrial output was “taking one step forward and one step back.” The last revision to the assessment came in the July 2024 report, when the ministry upgraded its view.
METI is scheduled to release its production forecasts for May and June, which could provide insight into whether uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation is affecting the production outlook. In the previous survey, the ministry’s forecast index showed April industrial production was expected to fall 0.7% on the month after adjustment for upward bias, while May output was projected to rise 2.2%.