Preview: Forecasters See Japan Jobless Rate Flat in January as Labor Shortages Persist

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

0830 JST (2330 GMT/1830 EST Monday, March 2) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases January jobs.

Mace News median:2.6% (range: 2.5% to 2.6%)vs. 2.6% in the previous five months, over 5-year low of 2.3% in July, 2.5% from March to June

By Chikafumi Hodo

TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged for a sixth consecutive month at 2.6% in January, as ongoing labor shortages across a wide range of industries continue to support payrolls.

The persistent trend in the job market underscores the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey in the December quarter, which showed that Japanese companies were increasingly experiencing labor shortages.

In December, employment rose for a 41st straight year-on-year increase, with the number of employed persons up 130,000 from a year earlier to 68.42 million. Many companies continue to seek qualified workers, particularly in hospitals, construction firms, hotels and restaurants. By contrast, manufacturers and the wholesale and retail sectors continued to reduce their workforces.

Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people increased for a fifth consecutive month in December. By reason for seeking employment compared with the same month a year earlier, the number of those who left jobs for employer- or business-related reasons rose by 10,000, while voluntary job leavers fell by 10,000. The number of new job seekers increased by 110,000.

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