Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, April 10, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, April 9) The Bank of Japan releases the March corporate goods price index.
Mace News median: CGPI +2.2% y/y (range: +1.9% to +3.8%) vs. Feb +2.0%; +0.5% m/m (range: +0.2% to +2.1%) vs. Feb -0.1%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), is expected to hold steady on the year in March as rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil product prices higher following three consecutive months of deceleration through February.
The CGPI is projected to rise 2.2% from a year earlier in March vs 2.0% in February. That would match the lowest level since April 2024, when the CGPI rose 1.2%, and extend the streak of increases to 61 consecutive months.
Producer inflation had already been easing ahead of March. The CGPI slowed to 2.0% in February from 2.3% in January and 2.4% in December, as domestic rice supply shortages eased, fuel prices fell more than 10% year over year, and declines in utility prices deepened.
Gasoline and other oil product prices rose sharply in March amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. But the government’s subsidies are seen helping stabilize prices at levels roughly in line with a year earlier. The impact of the Middle East situation also appears limited to certain sectors, including chemical products.
In contrast to the uptrend in oil prices, rice prices have shown signs of a notable slowdown. In Tokyo’s consumer price index, rice prices rose 8.3% in March, sharply down from an 18.2% increase in February.
On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is expected to rise 0.5% in March after slipping 0.1% in February.