Friday, July 10, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, July 9) The Bank of Japan releases the June corporate goods price index.
Mace News median: CGPI +6.6% y/y (range: +6.4% to +7.2%) vs. May +6.3%; +0.2% m/m (range: +0.0% to +0.7%) vs. May +0.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), is expected to accelerate in June at the fastest pace in more than three years, driven by higher raw material prices and a weaker yen that has increased import costs.
The CGPI is forecast to rise 6.6% from a year earlier in June, the highest reading since March 2023. Producer inflation remained in the 2% range for 10 consecutive months from June 2025 through March 2026 before accelerating sharply in recent months. It unexpectedly jumped to 5.3% in April and extended its gain to 6.3% in May. The index is also expected to remain above 5% for a third straight month, the first such stretch since May 2023.
The CGPI has gathered momentum since geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The conflict has heightened uncertainty in the region, lifting raw material prices and adding upward pressure to producer prices in resource-poor Japan.
Although international crude oil prices had retreated from recent peaks by late June, rising labor costs and the yen’s continued weakness have added to inflationary pressure. The Japanese currency fell to its lowest level against the dollar since December 1986 in late June and was down about 10% from the same month a year earlier, pushing up import costs and, in turn, the CGPI.
On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is expected to rise 0.2% in June, marking a fourth straight monthly increase after a 0.9% gain in May. Higher prices for fuels, utilities, chemical products, non-ferrous metals and plastics drove the increase in May.