Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Wednesday, Feb.11) The Bank of Japan releases the January corporate goods price index.
Mace News median: CGPI +2.3% y/y (range: +2.0% to +2.4%) vs. Dec +2.4%; +0.2% m/m (range: -0.1% to +0.3%) vs. Dec +0.1%
By Chikafumi Hodo
(MaceNews) – Japan’s producer inflation is expected to rise on the year for a 59th consecutive month in January, but at the slowest pace and extending its deceleration for a second straight month. The underlying upward price trend remains intact, supported by firm food and nonferrous metals prices, although momentum has eased as domestic gasoline prices fall and rice prices hover around recent highs.
Producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), is seen rising 2.3 percent on the year in January, down from a 2.4 percent increase in the previous month, when growth slowed to the weakest pace since April 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is projected to rise 0.2 percent, marking a fifth straight monthly increase after a 0.1 percent gain in December.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have continued to keep crude oil prices elevated and volatile amid uncertainty surrounding Iran. Still, Japan’s decision to abolish the provisional gasoline tax has weighed on domestic gasoline prices, helping to cap overall energy costs.
The yen’s continued weakness tends to lift import prices and put upward pressure on producer prices, but downside pressure on the currency was limited in January as markets remained cautious amid concerns over possible intervention by Japanese authorities. This followed signs that Japanese and U.S. authorities checked the dollar-yen rate on January 23 to prevent the U.S. currency from rising above the key psychological level of ¥160.
Upward price pressures for agricultural, forestry and fishery products, particularly rice, are expected to ease in January from December levels.
Price gains have been driven mainly by nonferrous metals, as rising international prices increasingly spill over into domestic raw material markets. Nonferrous metal prices remain elevated, with copper prices surging globally amid supply concerns following an accident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia in September 2025, keeping domestic copper product prices buoyant. International prices of aluminum, widely used in automobiles and construction materials, have also risen sharply, sustaining elevated domestic prices.