Wednesday, April 1, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, March 31) The Bank of Japan releases quarterly survey on business sentiment, plans and inflation outlook for the March quarter.
Mace News medians: large mfg sentiment +17 vs. a revised +16 in Dec. from +15; large non-mfg +34 vs. a revised +36 in Dec. from +34; small mfg +7 vs. a revised +7 in Dec. from +6; small non-mfg +14 vs. a revised +17 in Dec. from +15
FY2025 large firm capex plans +9.7% y/y (+9.0% to +11.4%) vs. a revised 12.2% in Dec. from +12.6; FY2025 small firm capex plans -0.6% (-2.9% to +4.4%) vs. a revised -2.7% in Dec. from +0.1%
FY2026 large firm capex plans +2.9% y/y (+1.7% to +8.1%); FY2026 small firm capex plans -8.6% (-14.6% to -5.4%)
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a slight improvement among large manufacturers in the March quarter, while concerns over a decline in Chinese tourists amid worsening Japan-China relations are seen weighing on sentiment among both large and small non-manufacturers.
Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East triggered by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February appear to have had only a limited immediate impact on Japanese corporate sentiment. Still, concerns about the outlook are intensifying, prompting firms to remain cautious on capital spending as volatile global oil prices and rising domestic energy costs add to uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, the March Tankan diffusion index for large manufacturers is projected at 17, edging up from a revised 16, previously 15, in December and marking a fourth straight quarterly increase. The index for small manufacturers is expected to be unchanged at 7, compared with a revised 7, previously 6.
Sentiment among large manufacturing firms is expected to be supported by continued demand for automation amid labor shortages, as well as government-backed digital transformation and decarbonization initiatives.