By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Tokyo’s consumer price index, a leading indicator of the national inflation trend, is expected to accelerate in June, reflecting higher energy costs and supply concerns surrounding naphtha, other oil products and chemicals amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following the conflict involving the United States and Iran.
The closely watched core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected to accelerate for the first time in eight months in June. The core CPI is forecast to gain 1.6% on the year in June, up from a 1.3% increase in May, when it recorded its slowest pace since March 2022. Core inflation has decelerated sharply from the 3.6% rise posted in May 2025.
Despite easing food inflation, the impact of rising global commodity prices is beginning to filter through to consumer prices. Government measures to cap gasoline prices at around ¥170 per liter and the Tokyo metropolitan government’s decision to waive water charges for all households during the summer are expected to help limit upward inflation pressure, but are unlikely to fully offset the impact of higher import costs.
The other key inflation measures are also expected to advance. The overall CPI is forecast to increase 1.7% on the year in June, compared with a 1.4% rise in May. The June increase would be the highest since December, when it posted a 2.0% rise. The core-core index, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 1.8%, up from 1.6% in May.
On June 17, the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative agreement aimed at ending the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump said the deal includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global energy supplies. The development helped push international crude oil prices lower and lifted global equity markets. Still, uncertainty remains elevated as investors continue to react to often conflicting remarks from Trump, fueling sharp swings in market sentiment and keeping financial markets volatile.