Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, Dec. 19, 2025
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1830 EST Thursday, Dec. 18) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases November CPI
Mace News median: total CPI +2.9% y/y (range: +2.8% to +3.0%) vs. Oct +3.0%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +3.0% y/y (range: +2.8% to +3.1%) vs. Oct +3.0%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +3.0% y/y (range +3.0% to +3.1%) vs. Oct +3.1%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide consumer inflation is expected to remain little changed at around 3% on the year in November, staying well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
Upward pressure continues from strong food and energy prices, as well as a renewed uptrend in electricity bills following the government’s termination of subsidies two months ago. At the same time, signs of declining retail prices at supermarkets are likely to limit overall inflation during the month.
The core CPI, excluding fresh food, is forecast to rise 3.0% on the year in November, steady from October and following a 2.9% gain in September. This will be the 51st straight month of year-on-year increases. The total CPI is expected to rise 2.9%, compared with 3.0% in October and 2.9% in September. Underlying inflation, measured by the core-core CPI that excludes both fresh food and energy, is projected rise 3.0%, after a 3.1% increase in October and a 3.0% gain in September.
On November 28 (Japan Standard Time), Tokyo’s CPI, widely seen as a leading indicator of the nationwide trend, showed stable year-on-year growth of 2.8% in two key measures in November. The headline index eased from the sharp increase seen in October, which had been driven by the scheduled end of Tokyo government’s four-month program to waive base water charges during the late-summer heat wave.