Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, Oct 23, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, Oct 22) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases September CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +2.1% y/y (range: +2.1% to +2.3%) vs. Aug +1.9%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +2.1% y/y (range: +2.0% to +2.3%) vs. Aug +1.7%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.3% y/y (range: +2.2% to +2.5%) vs. Aug +1.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – The three key measures of Japan’s nationwide consumer price index are expected to rise above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target in September for the first time in six months. Consumer inflation is showing increasingly clear signs of broadening across goods and services amid higher energy prices and the weaker yen.
The uptrend in prices was confirmed by the September Tokyo CPI, a leading indicator of the nationwide trend. But the pace of increase in the nationwide figures is not expected to be as strong as in Tokyo, as some policy measures were specific to the capital. These included a reduction of free nursery school fees and the end of water bill subsidies for the peak summer months.
Nationwide consumer inflation is nevertheless expected to accelerate in September as retailers continue to pass higher labor, materials, packaging and transportation costs on to consumers, keeping prices elevated.
Reflecting this trend, the core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected to rise 2.1% on the year in September, compared with 1.7% a month earlier. This would be the highest rate of increase since December 2025, when it reached 2.4% and the first time the index has risen above the 2% mark since then.
The other two key inflation measures are also expected to rise above the BOJ’s 2% target. The headline CPI is forecast to rise 2.1% on the year in September, up from 1.9% in August, while the core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, is projected to increase 2.3%, compared with 1.9% a month earlier.