Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, Aug 21, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, Aug 20) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases July CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.9% y/y (range: +1.8% to +2.0%) vs. June revised down to +1.6% under new base year formula from +1.7%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.8% y/y (range: +1.7% to +1.9%) vs. June +1.6%, unrevised under new formula; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +1.9% y/y (range +1.8% to +2.0%) vs. June +1.7%, unrevised under new formula
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, is expected to accelerate further in July, along with two other key readings, as a general uptrend in prices stemming from rising import costs amid prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the weaker yen continues to push up prices.
The government announced on August 7 that it had updated the CPI base year, shifting it to 2025 from 2020. It revises the base year every five years, with the change taking effect from the July figures. The update resulted in a minor 0.1 percentage-point downward adjustment to the total CPI for June 2026, while the core CPI, which excludes fresh food, and the core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, were not revised.
Falling food prices and the government’s efforts to cap gasoline and utility prices are expected to ease some inflationary pressure, but the underlying upward trend in nationwide prices is seen strengthening in July. The forecast is in line with Tokyo CPI figures released on July 31, which already indicated an acceleration in consumer inflation in the capital.
The core CPI is expected to rise 1.8% on the year in July, accelerating from a 1.6% increase a month earlier. It rose just 1.4% in April and May, the lowest level since March 2022.
The nationwide CPI accelerated slightly in June as a smaller decline in gasoline prices and larger increases in other fuel prices limited the impact of continued moderation in processed food prices. Still, the increase remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target as the government has been providing fuel subsidies since mid-March and free high school education took effect in April.
Tokyo CPI, which is a leading indicator of the nationwide trend, accelerated further in July, pushing the annual rate of core consumer inflation to a six-month high of 1.9%. Two other key measures, the headline CPI and core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, both climbed to 2.0%.
The two other key nationwide inflation measures in July are expected to follow the trend in Tokyo. The total CPI is seen rising 1.9% after a revised 1.6% increase in June under the new base year, down from the initial 1.7%. Core-core CPI is also expected to rise 1.9% in July, following a 1.7% increase in June.