Consensus outlook for Mace News
Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, Oct 21) The Ministry of Finance releases September trade.
Mace News median: exports +21.7% y/y (range: +17.9% to +24.0%) vs. +19.3% in Aug; imports +19.9% y/y (range: +17.7% to +20.1%) vs. +28.0% in Aug; trade deficit ¥78.0 billion (range: a deficit of ¥368.9 billion to a surplus of ¥45.3 billion) vs. a revised ¥1,112 billion deficit in August from ¥1,105 billion deficit; ¥277.70 deficit in September 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are expected to rise over 20% on the year in September, driven by AI-related capital spending and strong global demand for semiconductors, chip-making equipment, automobiles and industrial machinery.
The persistent weakness of the yen is not only helping lift export values but also pushing up import values, with the currency effect amplifying the impact of already high energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as raising the cost of other imported raw materials and goods.
This trend is expected to keep Japan’s trade balance in deficit for the fifth consecutive month in September, although the shortfall is forecast to narrow considerably to ¥78 billion from August, when it topped ¥1 trillion for the first time in seven months.
Based on provisional trade data for the first 20 days of September by the Ministry of Finance, export values are projected to rise 21.7% on the year, marking the 13th consecutive monthly increase, after rising 19.3% a month earlier. In August, the increase was led by automobiles, semiconductor-related electronic components and semiconductor production equipment.
Imports are expected to rise 19.9% on the year in September after jumping 28.0% a month earlier. In August, the increase was driven by crude oil, semiconductor-related electronic components and computers, including peripherals, as largely seen in recent months.