0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, May 20) The Cabinet Office releases March and January-March machinery orders.
Mace News median: core orders -13.2% m/m (range: -20.0% to -3.1%) vs. Feb +13.6%; +4.5% y/y (range: -9.8% to +8.2%) vs. Feb +24.7%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in equipment and software, are expected to reverse course in March after unexpectedly strong growth a month earlier, as the impact of tensions in the Middle East is seen more clearly weighing on orders.
Core machinery orders in March are projected to fall 13.2% on the month after surging 13.6% in February, when large-scale orders from sectors such as non-ferrous metals unexpectedly boosted the figures.
March orders are expected to weaken, in line with other capital investment indicators. Domestic shipments of capital goods excluding transport equipment in the industrial production statistics, which are regarded as a coincident indicator, fell on the month in March. There are also signs that domestic demand for machine tools slowed in March.
On a year-on-year basis, machinery orders are expected to rise 4.5% in March after recording double-digit gains for the previous three months. Orders rose 24.7% in February, 13.7% in January and 16.8% in December.
Still, the underlying trend in machinery orders remains firm. The Bank of Japan’s March Tankan survey, released April 1, showed corporate investment sentiment remained resilient despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
For the January-March quarter, machinery orders are expected to rise 5.7% from the previous quarter, marking a second consecutive quarterly increase after rising 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter in 2025 and exceeding the Cabinet Office’s preliminary forecast for a 4.2% decline.