Friday, Sept 18, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, Sept 17) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases July CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +2.0% y/y (range: +1.9% to +2.1%) vs. July +1.9%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.8% y/y (range: +1.8% to +2.0%) vs. July +1.8%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.0% y/y (range +1.9% to +2.2%) vs. July +1.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, is expected to remain steady in August from the previous month, while the two other key inflation measures are expected to edge up to the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. The government’s latest subsidies for electricity and gas charges took effect during the month and may have helped curb inflation, while the weak yen continued to boost import costs, with fresh food prices and rents also showing signs of climbing.
The uptrend in consumer inflation is becoming clearer as rising energy costs amid prolonged tensions in the Middle East and the yen’s weakness push up import costs. Prices are also climbing as shops pass higher labor, materials, packaging and transportation costs on to consumers amid widespread worker shortages and elevated import costs in the resource-poor country.
The core CPI is expected to rise 1.8% on the year in August, little changed from the previous month. It accelerated from a 1.6% increase in June and 1.4% in both April and May, the lowest level since March 2022.
The other two key consumer inflation readings are expected to climb to the BOJ’s target. The total CPI is expected to rise to 2.0% in August from 1.9% a month earlier, while the core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, is also forecast to advance to 2.0% from 1.9% in July. The BOJ adopted a new CPI base year starting with the July reading, shifting it to 2025 from 2020. The base year is revised every five years, with the change taking effect from the July figures. The update resulted in a minor 0.1 percentage-point downward adjustment to the headline CPI for June 2026, while the core CPI, which excludes fresh food, and the core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, were not revised