Friday, June 5, 2026
0830 JST (2350 GMT/1930 EDT Monday, May 11) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the April average household spending.
Mace News median forecasts: -1.6% y/y (range: -2.7% to 0.3%) vs. Mar -2.9%; +0.4% m/m (range: -0.5% to +2.0%) vs. Mar -1.3%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Persisting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasingly affecting consumer sentiment and seen to be leading to a fifth straight month of declines in annual Japanese real household spending in April.
Household expenditure for two or more people is seen falling 1.6% on the year in April after slipping 2.9% in March. On a month-on-month basis, household spending is expected to rise 0.4% in April after falling 1.3% in March.
In March, consumers remained cautious about spending beyond necessities amid low wage growth in real terms, trimming expenditures on eating out and gift money at weddings, while they paid higher dental bills in recent months. There has also been a widespread shift toward more affordable mobile communications options.
April spending is seen as having a mixed picture, but underlying caution over the U.S.-Israel war against Iran appears to be dampening consumption appetite. Domestic supermarket sales rose on the year for the first time in two months in April, while gains in sales volumes in the nationwide consumer price index remained limited. This suggests that overall household expenditure could have been constrained.
The average real household income increased by 4.7% on the year in March and annualized real wage growth is expected to continue at around that pace in the coming months. Still, the underlying geopolitical tensions appear to be weighing on consumer sentiment, with concerns that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may already be affecting actual consumer spending behavior.