–Updates forecast figures for confidence among large non-manufacturing firms, capex plans for both large and smaller firms.
Monday, Dec. 15, 2025 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Sunday, Dec. 14) The Bank of Japan releases quarterly survey on business sentiment, plans and inflation outlook for the December quarter.
Mace News medians: large mfg sentiment +15 vs. +14 in Sept; large non-mfg +35 vs. +34; small mfg +1 vs. +1; small non-mfg +14 vs. +14
FY2025 large firm capex plans +12.1% y/y (+10.0% to +13.4%) vs. +12.5 in Sept; FY2025 small firm capex plans -0.2% (-1.1% to +2.9%) vs. -2.3%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a slight improvement among major firms in both manufacturing and services sectors in the December quarter, supported by the yen’s continued weakness and solid global demand tied to artificial intelligence. At the same time, the negative effects of the Trump tariffs are expected to continue to surface, keeping the overall outlook cautious.
Business sentiment among large and small non-manufacturers is expected to remain largely unchanged from the September survey.
The Tankan diffusion index for major manufacturers is forecast at 15, up from 14 in September and seen marking the third straight quarterly increase. The index measuring sentiment among major non-manufacturers is also projected to tick up to 35 from 34.
The index for smaller manufacturers is forecast to hold at 1 while that for small non-manufacturers is also expected to be unchanged at 14. The BOJ will release the results of its Tankan survey, conducted from around mid-November to mid-December, at 0850 JST on Monday, Dec. 15 (1850 EST/2350 GMT on Sunday, Dec. 14).
Big companies are expected to project a combined 12.1% rise in business investment in equipment and software for fiscal 2025 ending in March 2026, slightly down from 12.5% in the September survey after a planned 11.5% increase in the June quarter, but sharply higher than their first estimate of +3.1% provided in March.
Capital expenditure plans continue to be supported by demand for automation amid labor shortages, as well as government-backed digital transformation and emissions-related initiatives. However, upward revisions by major firms may be somewhat more modest than in typical years due to lingering uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Smaller firms are expected to continue revising up their combined capital spending plans, following the pattern typically seen toward the end of the fiscal year. Their investment plans are forecast to dip just 0.2% in December after a 2.3% fall in September, having already revised their outlook to -5.6% in June from -10.0% in the first estimate released in March.