Friday, Feb. 20, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1830 EST Thursday, Feb. 19) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases January CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.6% y/y (range: +1.5% to +1.7%) vs. Dec+2.1%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +2.1% y/y (range: +2.0% to +2.1%) vs. Dec +2.4%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.7% y/y (range +2.6% to +2.8%) vs. Dec +2.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide consumer inflation is expected to continue rising, but the pace of gains is seen slowing further in January after sharp declines across the three key measures the previous month, as softer food and energy prices, along with lower electricity and gas prices, weighed on inflation growth.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, is expected to rise 2.1 percent from a year earlier in January, marking a 53rd consecutive increase but the slowest pace since January 2024. The CPI stood at 2.4 percent in December and had eased from 3.0 percent in both October and November.
Among the other major measures, the headline CPI is projected to rise about 1.6 percent in January, slowing for a third straight month from 2.1 percent in December and slipping below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target. The core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise about 2.7 percent, down from 2.9 percent in December, when it fell below the 3 percent mark for the first time in nine months since March.
The nationwide trend reflects developments in Tokyo, whose CPI figures were released Jan. 30. The headline CPI in the capital rose 1.5 percent from a year earlier in January from 2.0 percent in December and marking the lowest increase since 1.3 percent in March 2022.
Tokyo’s CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.0 percent year on year in January from 2.3 percent in December. The index excluding both fresh food and energy rose 2.4 percent, easing from 2.6 percent the previous month.