Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, October 30, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, October 29) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases October Tokyo CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +2.7% y/y (range: +2.4% to +2.9%) vs. Sept +2.7%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +2.7% (range: +2.4% to +2.8%) vs. Sept +2.7%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.8% (range: +2.5% to +3.0%) vs. Sept +3.0%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Consumer inflation in Tokyo, a leading indicator of the national trend, is expected to stay buoyant in October. After the three key inflation figures rose sharply above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nine months in September, they are expected to be little changed or slightly decelerate, holding near 3% for the second straight month.
The general uptrend in prices remained in place as tensions in the Middle East kept international oil and raw material prices elevated, while the yen’s weakness continued to push import costs higher. Higher labor, material, transportation and other costs have been passed on to consumers through price increases across a wide range of goods and services, bolstering inflation.
In September, Tokyo’s CPI rose more than expected as the metropolitan government’s water subsidies for the peak summer months ended for some households and the price-cutting effects of free daycare services were slightly reduced. The trend is expected to continue in October, although the three key CPI readings are forecast to stay near their previous levels following the unexpected jump in September.
The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is forecast to rise 2.7% on the year in October, little changed from a month earlier. The total CPI is expected to rise 2.7%, also flat from the previous month. The core-core index, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 2.8%, down from a 3.0% increase in September. That marked the first time since August 2025 that the index had reached the 3% mark.