Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, Oct 9, 2026
0830 JST (2350 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, Oct 8) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the August average household spending.
Mace News median forecasts: -4.2% y/y (range: -4.4% to -2.4%) vs. July -3.6%; -0.3% m/m (range: -0.4% to +1.4%) vs. July +0.5%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese households are becoming increasingly cautious about spending as upward pressure on prices shows few signs of easing. Real spending by households of two or more persons is expected to drop for the ninth straight month on the year in August, while cooler temperatures may have limited purchases of summer-related items.
Several indicators pointed to a slowdown in consumer spending in August. New passenger car registrations slowed, while nationwide supermarket sales rose only slightly. Meanwhile, sales growth at nationwide department stores and convenience stores also slowed, underscoring that rising prices may be making households more cautious about spending.
In addition, natural disasters, including a powerful magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck Kumamoto on Japan’s southern main island of Kyushu in late July and heavy rain and flooding in Chiba in mid-August, as well as lower temperatures in central and northern regions, including Tokyo, could have affected sales of summer-related items.
August real household spending by two or more persons is forecast to drop 4.2% on the year after falling 3.6% a month earlier. On the month, spending is expected to fall 0.3% for the first time in two months after rising 0.5% in July.
In July, consumers were wary of spending beyond daily necessities, while automobile purchases took a breather after a recent pickup. On the upside, the heat wave boosted demand for air conditioners, while replacement demand for washing machines also increased. People also spent more on hotels and dining out, although the increases may have been partly driven by higher fuel, labor and import costs.