Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, July 24 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, July 23) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases June CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.6% y/y (range: +1.6% to +1.7%) vs. May +1.5%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.6% y/y (range: +1.5% to +1.7%) vs. May +1.4%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +1.7% y/y (range +1.6% to +1.9%) vs. May +1.8%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, is expected to accelerate for the first time in eight months, reflecting the trend in Tokyo, which is a leading indicator of the nationwide data.
Tokyo CPI, announced on June 26, picked up in June as the year-on-year increase in processed food prices continued to moderate and the decline in gasoline prices narrowed compared with June 2025, when fuel cost increases eased.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed international oil and other commodity prices higher. The ongoing weakness of the yen against the dollar raised import costs and added upward pressure on domestic prices.
Still, the three key readings of the nationwide CPI are expected to remain below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target for a third consecutive month in June, as slower food price increases and government measures, including subsidies for gasoline, continue to weigh on consumer prices.
The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected to remain below the 2% inflation target for the fifth consecutive month, rising 1.6% on the year in June after increasing 1.4% in both May and April. The overall CPI is seen rising 1.6% after increasing 1.5% in May. Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 1.7% in June after increasing 1.8% in May.