Tuesday, Sept 8
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Sunday, June 7) Cabinet Office releases the revised GDP for April-June 2026.
Mace News median: +0.4% q/q (range +0.3% to +0.7%) vs. Q2 prelim +0.3%; +1.6% annualized (range +1.3% to +2.7%) vs. Q2 prelim +1.1%; +0.9% y/y (range +0.8% to +0.9%) vs. Q2 prelim +0.7%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s gross domestic product for the April-June quarter is expected to be revised up slightly, driven by an improvement in corporate spending after the initial reading showed a much sharper-than-expected decline, while private consumption remained weak and public investment revised down from the preliminary reading.
The underlying economy is expected to remain resilient, with real GDP projected to grow for a third consecutive quarter despite strong headwinds. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the yen’s weakness pushed up import costs, while the government managed to contain gains in energy prices by providing subsidies and taking measures to release strategic oil reserves.
Japanese corporations have also benefited from persistent global demand related to artificial intelligence, including the construction of data centers around the world, providing a solid footing for the economy.
Real capital investment is expected to be revised up to a 0.8% decline on the quarter in the April-June period from a 1.2% decline in the preliminary reading released on Aug. 17. This is seen as one of the reasons for the expected upward revision in second-quarter GDP growth to 0.4% on the quarter from the initial reading of 0.3%.
On an annualized basis, the economy is seen being revised up to a 1.6% increase from the preliminary reading of 1.1%, while slowing from the 2.1% gain in the previous quarter. Compared with a year earlier, GDP is projected to expand 0.9%, up from the preliminary result of a 0.7% increase.
Revised private consumption is expected to be little changed at a 0.0% decline from the preliminary reading. The marginal drop came as a surprise as consumption fell from a 0.5% increase in the first quarter. Private consumption, which accounts for about 55% of GDP, also dipped into negative territory for the first time in eight months.
Consumption appeared to have been affected by legislation implemented from the new fiscal year in April to expand the program to make high school tuition free. Income restrictions on high school students were abolished nationwide, including for students attending private schools. In addition, higher cigarette prices from April could have affected consumption.
A steady increase in inflation across a wider range of items could continue to restrain consumer sentiment and weigh on private consumption, but household demand is expected to be supported by steady wage increases, with signs that the domestic labor market remains healthy, which could help support consumer confidence.
Revised public investment is expected to worsen from the initial outcome, falling 0.6% from the initial 0.1% decline. This would mark a sharp contraction after rising 1.5% in the January-March quarter.
Elsewhere, the revised second-quarter results are largely expected to be little changed or show a slight improvement from the preliminary figures released about three weeks ago.
Domestic demand is expected to have contributed 0.0 percentage point to overall GDP growth, upwardly revised from a 0.2-point decline in the preliminary data. Private inventories are expected to be revised up to a 0.4-percentage-point contribution from 0.3 point in the initial reading.
Consensus forecasts are shown as quarter-on-quarter percentage changes, except for domestic demand, private inventories and net exports, which are expressed in percentage-point contributions. Preliminary figures are in parentheses.
GDP q/q: +0.4% (+0.3%); 3rd straight rise
GDP annualized: +1.6% (+1.1%); 3rd straight rise
GDP y/y: +0.9% (+0.7%); 8th straight rise
Domestic demand: 0.0 point (-0.2 point); flat after 2nd straight rise
Private consumption: -0.0% (-0.0%); 1st drop in 8 qtrs
Business investment: -0.8% (-1.2%); 2nd straight drop
Public investment: -0.6% (-0.1%); 1st drop in 2 qtrs
Private inventories: +0.4 point (+0.3 point); 1st rise in 5 qtrs
Net exports (external demand): +0.5 point (+0.5 point), 3rd straight rise