Thursday, April 30, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, April 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases March retail sales.
Mace News median: +1.0% y/y (range: -0.4% to +1.8%) vs. Feb revised to -0.1% from -0.2%; +0.4% m/m (range: -0.8% to +1.4%) vs. Feb -2.0%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s retail sales are seen rising for the first time in two months in March after falling in the previous month, weighed down by sluggish clothing sales and a sharp drop in fuel prices following the government’s removal of decades-old surcharges at the end of 2025.
Retail sales are expected to increase 1.0% on the year in March after a revised 0.1% decline in February (initially -0.2%). Sales are projected to rebound amid stronger department store sales. Auto sales also appear to have picked up, with the decline in new passenger car registrations narrowing from the previous month, while the drop in fuel retailing is seen moderating.
On a month-on-month basis, sales are expected to rise 0.4% in March after falling 2.0% in the previous month.
In February, retail sales posted their first year-on-year decline in two months (the third in 12 months), slipping 0.2% (some had forecast a slight gain) after a modest 1.8% increase in January, partly reflecting payback for strong auto sales in February 2025 and a 10th straight drop in fuel sales.
In the same month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment after upgrading it the previous month, saying retail sales are “on a gradual uptrend.”