Tuesday, March 10
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Monday, March 9) Cabinet Office releases the revised GDP for October-December 2025.
Mace News median: +0.3% q/q (range +0.2% to +0.4%) vs. Q4 prelim +0.1%; +1.3% annualized (range +0.8% to +1.5%) vs. Q4 prelim +0.2%; +0.3% y/y (range +0.2% to +0.4%) vs. Q4 prelim +0.1%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s revised gross domestic product for the October–December quarter is expected to show improvement, supported by private capital expenditure and corporations’ appetite to build up inventories. Signals of improvements in domestic demand and public spending are also expected to push the country’s economic growth slightly further into positive territory compared with a nearly flat level in the preliminary reading.
The country’s revised Q4 GDP is expected to rise for the first time in two quarters, increasing 0.3 percent on the quarter compared with the preliminary reading of 0.1 percent that was released on February 16. On an annualized basis, the revised GDP is expected to grow 1.3 percent, up from the preliminary estimate of 0.2 percent.
GDP returned to positive territory in Q4 after posting its first contraction in six quarters during the July–September period, when growth was dragged down by weaker-than-expected capital expenditure and soft exports. The downturn was primarily linked to the implementation of stiff U.S. trade tariffs.
Preliminary data showed that public works spending fell more sharply than previously estimated, while U.S. tariffs weighed on exports of autos, metals, and computer chips. Private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of GDP, remained sluggish amid elevated costs for daily necessities and declining real wages. Its resilience also faded toward the end of the year as severe winter weather disrupted economic activity. As a result, domestic demand made virtually no contribution to overall output, while external demand, as measured by net exports (exports minus imports), also failed to provide meaningful support to the country’s growth.
In the revised Q4 figures, domestic demand is expected to have contributed +0.3 percentage point to overall GDP, up from 0.0 point in preliminary data. Capital expenditure is forecast to accelerate to +1.2 percent from the preliminary +0.2 percent. Public investment is expected to drop for the third consecutive quarter, but is expected to improve to -0.2 percent from -1.3% in the initial reading.
Consensus forecasts are shown as quarter-on-quarter percentage changes, except for domestic demand, private inventories and net exports, which are expressed in percentage-point contributions. Preliminary figures are in parentheses.
GDP q/q: +0.3% (+0.1%); 1st rise in 2 qtrs
GDP annualized: +1.3% (+0.2%); 1st rise in 2 qtrs
GDP y/y: +0.3% (+0.1%); 6th straight rise
Domestic demand: +0.3 point (0.0 point); 1st rise in 2 qtrs
Private consumption: +0.1% (+0.1%); 7th straight rise
Business investment: +1.2% (+0.2%); 1st rise in 2 qtrs
Public investment: -0.2% (-1.3%); 3rd straight drop
Private inventories: -0.2 point (-0.2 point); 2nd straight drop
Net exports (external demand): 0.0 point (0.0 point), flat after 1st drop in 2 qtrs