Silvia Marchetti
ROME (MaceNews) – A potential victory in France of far-right presidential candidate Marie Le Pen would jeopardize prosperous Italy-France ties and boost Italy’s own far-right populists, warned Italian coalition sources.
By extension, a Le Pen victory would weaken the European Union‘s integration process and NATO unity in opposing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The French runoff vote on Sunday between President Emmanuel Macron and his rival Le Pen, who lags in polls by a narrow margin, could ‘reverse’ the improvements made in relations between Rome and Paris, and weaken a powerful alliance which has been a driver for growth in the EU, warned officials.
“With former German chancellor Angela Merkel gone, the traditional Paris-Berlin axis has weakened in favor of the Paris-Rome one, which has been a protagonist on the European stage in furthering the integration process and is likely to have a set back if Le Pen wins,” said an official.
Sources view the pro-European government of premier Mario Draghi as “the polar opposite” of the populist, nationalist party of Le Pen, even though the League party, a coalition ally in Draghi’s cabinet, openly supports the French far-right candidate.
“In its history the EU has always moved forward thanks to a core of member states which form the propulsive engine — these being the three largest economies — France, Italy and Germany. A populist France would be catastrophic,” added another source.
Officials are concerned that a potential victory of Le Pen would bolster Italy’s populist far-right Brothers of Italy party led by Giorgia Meloni, which currently leads polls and has high chances of winning next year’s general elections.
“Meloni’s party is the only group at the opposition in parliament which has refused to join forces to support the current government of national unity, and she’s now gathering all the anti-establishment consensus,” said a source.
“A victory of Le Pen would represent the arrival of a that ‘wind of change’ sweeping across Europe which Italian populists have been waiting for ever since Donald Trump rose to power in the US.”
A Le Pen-led France would also undo the key decisions Bruxelles has so far taken with regard to Russian President Vladimir Putin and for which Italy has been the strongest advocate at EU-level.
“If the EU moves on with the decision to place a cap on the price of imported Russian gas, and Le Pen wins, France would block the decision, placing a veto. She’s always been a pro-Putin supporter but were she to rise to power she would be leading the second largest, most powerful economy in the EU,” said a source.
Italy’s premier Mario Draghi is rallying consensus for a EU-wide price cap on Russian energy, and the European Commission recently appeared open to such a possibility.
Macron secured a first victory on April 11 with 27.8% versus Le Pen at 23.15%, but the final outcome of the runoff election remains uncertain.
According to recent polls of voting intentions, Macron could get 55.5% of the vote, which would put him in a much weaker position than in 2017 when he first ran against Le Pen and won with 66 percent of the vote.
Even though French opinion surveys this week suggest Macron is the most credible candidate and that voters seek continuity, the ‘razor thin’ distance between him and Le Pen raises concerns that the final outcome will very much depend on swing voters, said sources.
“We are confident that Macron will win, but the gap between the two candidates is narrower than five years ago, and at this critical moment Europe can’t afford to lose such a pro-European figure as Macron, who has accelerated the integration process and contributed in building the anti-Putin front,” said another official.
In recent months, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, France teamed up with Italy to spearhead a more integrated common EU defense policy aimed at building a single European army, and a common energy policy to put an end to Europe’s dependance on Russian gas.
“Le Pen would kill all these efforts, primarily because her party is pure populism, and she has always been against forsaking national sovereignty to the European institutions,” said a source.
Her rise to power would inevitably “dismantle” the great relations with Italy with repercussions also on EU moves toward a common budget, common banking union and a political union, according to officials.