STATUS CHECK: BITTER PARTISAN DIVISIONS ON DISPLAY; CONSUMER CONF DETERIORATES

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Tuesday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes:

  • A VIX somewhat more tense Tuesday, worsening 2.83% to 25.44, as U.S. stocks backed into the red by moderate amounts, worsening in a steep downdraft in the last hour of trading. The S&P was -0.65%/-20.97; Nasdaq -1.27%/-134.18; DJIA -0.77%/-205.49. All three indices are still solidly positive for the month but the tide seemed to turn after Thursday. The surprise winner was Kodak, up 203% on news the U.S. government is injecting $765 million to onshore the production of basic pharmaceutical ingredients. After-hours trading was slightly positive overall.
  • Dollar indexes were mixed, oscillating in the last couple of days instead of continuing the downward slide. Euro/dollar +0.06% at 1.1723.
  • In the credit markets, the U.S. 10-year yield was still on the downward trajectory begun early in June. The 0.581% yield Monday evening a far cry from 0.902% as recently as June 5. The entire curve, adjusted for inflation, first went negative in March when the 30-year succumbed.
  • Gold reached !949.40 with the day $9 jump. Back on June 5th, when the long ascent began, it was $1683/oz.
  • The Washington scene was painted in bitter divisive hues Tuesday, with the rare appearance before a congressional committee by Attorney General William Barr the opportunity for five hours of partisan attacks and defenses. The hearing had competing videos – of violence, arson and looting from Republicans and of peaceful candlelit demonstrators from Democrats. All of Barr’s responses were as expected except he did say it could be assumed Russia would try to intervene in the 2020 presidential election as it had in 2016.
  • President Trump’s evening briefing and Q&A followed the new pattern, a routine reading of prepared remarks on the latest figures on production of PPE, ventilators and that new contract being finalized with Kodak, then away from the written comments, a veer off into the merits of hydroxychloroquine. Complaining of the much higher approval ratings for Fauci and Birx, Trump said, “They’re highly thought of, but nobody likes me.” His overnight retweets spread so much virus misinformation they were blocked by major social media outlets and included slams at Fauci. Still, he repeated for the cameras, “Fauci and I have a very good relationship.”
  • There were additional bad vibes from Major League Baseball as more Miami Marlins players tested positive, putting theirnext six games on hold. That in turn gave the Washington Nationals a week off with their decision not to go to Miami.
  • Joe Biden did some rare Q&A during the afternoon, saying, “People are losing faith in what the president says.” He suggested the Federal Reserve might need another mandate, targeting racial equity. His VP announcement may be next week.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee’s policy decision, as always, hits at 2p ET Wednesday and Chair Jay Powell’s news conference at 2:30p. If the markets smell even more commitment to open-ended generosity, gold could jump some more as the dollar weakens. As inevitably, the Fed Tuesday extended in virus response facilities until the end of the year. Eventual further extensions will be no surprise either.
  • On the Phase 4 front, another meeting between Treasury’s Mnuchin, the White House’s Meadows and Democrats as Republican dissenters made themselves heard more loudly, making Democratic votes even more necessary and increasing their leverage. A very long way to go. Senate Dem Schumer said the Republican offering would cost a million jobs.
  • The virus claimed another 1,109 lives in the United States in 24 hours, brining the total to the brink of 150,000, at 149,551 (NY Times Tracker). Twenty-one states were in the so-called Red Zone of increasing intensity though some of the hardest hit, like California, claimed some stabilization in cases. Ahead, Covid accelerators like Sept/ 7’s Labor Day, fall-winter influenza, at least some school reopenings.
  • Wednesday’s data starts with the 7a MBA mortgage applications report, international trade and retail inventories at 8:30a and the  NAR’s pending home sales at 10a. The day’s consumer confidence hit backtracked to 92.6 vs. 98.3 in June.
  • The forecast cone shows the tropical storm gathering strength in the south Atlantic hitting Florida Sunday.

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