WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Monday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes.
· Fifteen days until Election Day but already a feeling settling in that the ballistic trajectory has been set and that although we don’t know the outcome, it has been decided. Thirty million people have, in fact, already voted. Almost all of the rest have made up their minds. It’s unlikely the Town Hall Wednesday night on 294 Sinclair-affiliated stations will change minds, particularly since President Trump will be facing a friendly moderator, ex-Fox’s Eric Bolling, who has authored a pro-Trump book. Trump called the moderator of his Thursday night Presidential Debate, NBC’s Kristen Welker, a “radical left-wing Democrat” in his Prescott, Ariz. MAGA rally. He said Samantha Guthrie, who moderated last week’s NBC Town Hall a “crazy lunatic” so he’s obviously very picky when it comes to moderators. Also formats, which is why it would surprise no one should there be a tweet that Trump is pulling out of Thursday night now that the Commission on Presidential Debates is going to manage the microphones so no interruptions.
· Virus experts also must pass a high bar. Infectious disease authority Tony Fauci, having served every president since Ronald Reagan, is still not meeting the test. ABC and NBC nightly news led with “Trump criticizes Fauci,” and the Drudge news aggregation site used, “Trump: Fauci an Idiot.” Actually, in a conference call with his campaign staff, Trump said, ”People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.” It is not known if any of the campaign staff suggested that the president might lighten up on the criticism of Fauci, who is widely admired. Sen. Lamar Alexander, like other Republican senators Sasse and Cornyn (see below), no longer reluctant to depart from the president’s narrative, backed Fauci. He said Fauci is “one of our country’s most distinguished public servants.” If more followed his advice, “We’d have fewer cases” and would be safer “to go back to school” and work.”
· Meanwhile on the front lines another trajectory seems to have been determined, that of the fall and winter virus surge that has begun to use up hospital bed capacity in many spots across the country. The daily death toll seems to be heading to an average of more than 700 a day so far in October (NYT Tracker). The most pessimistic forecasts see it going three times or more higher by February. Trump is sticking with his “rounding the bend” analysis in his two appearances Monday.
· A time out to observe the rare rebuke of Trump by a Republican over what has become, if not a favorite untruth told by the president now hundreds of times, at least one of the most grating for financial reporters who know the truth. The senator, John Cornyn, running for his fourth term, the majority vote counting “whip” until last year. “I applaud him for standing up to China but, frankly, this idea that China is paying the price and we’re not paying the price here at home is just not true,” Cornyn said. Acknowledging U.S, importers pay the tariffs, not China, is something Trump has never been willing to do.
· U.S. Treasury Secretary was in Abu Dhabi when he and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke Monday and he’ll be calling in from Qatar Tuesday. Pelosi has said Tuesday night is the last chance to get a pandemic relief package through the House and Senate by Election Day. That is not the same as saying talks will stop if no agreement is reached. For anyone still keeping track – and that might include millions facing imminent eviction, bankruptcy, hunger and worse – tune in to Bloomberg TV and radio after noon Tuesday when Pelosi is set to be interviewed.
· Here’s an item not related to the virus, pandemic relief or the presidential campaign, a rare intersection of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and digital currency. He was among some heavy hitters in a panel on the subject organized by the IMF. He said the Fed and other cenbanks are studying the improvement in efficiency, the transaction costs that could be saved. He also said it will be a while before the Fed decides whether to experiment with an alternate currency that will need to be impervious to cybercrime, be backed by the rule of law and be consistent with an open capital account. But just to have the Fed chief participating in a discussion of digital currency’s feasibility was taken as a big boost to the concept.
· Upcoming economic data includes the latest monthly report on housing starts at 8:30a ET and the Redbook read of weekly same-store retail activity at 8:55a. The Fed’s vice chair for bank supervision Randal Quarles addresses a SIFMA audience at 10:50a.
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