NEW YORK (MaceNews) – US consumer inflation expectations bumped up in October from September, paced by much higher expected gas prices, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The median expectation for inflation one year ahead among survey respondents rose to 5.94% in October from 5.44% in September and 5.75% in August. The median one-year inflation expectation remains below its recent peak of 6.78% in June.
The median three-year inflation expectations rose to 3.11% in October from 2.91% in September and 2.76% in August. The median five-year inflation expectation rose to 2.4% in October from 2.2% in September and 2.0% in August.
The uptick in one-year inflation expectations in part reflected much higher expectations for gas prices, with the median expected change in gas prices up 4.3 percentage points to 4.8% in October, its largest one-month rise on record.
Expectations for food prices in the year ahead rose by 0.7 percentage point to 7.6% and rose 0.1 percentage point for rent to 9.8% in October from September. The median expected change in the cost of medical care was unchanged at 9.2% while the median expected change in the cost of college education declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6%. The year ahead expectation for home prices was unchanged at 2.0%.
Consumers were somewhat gloomier about the employment market, with more expecting the unemployment rate to rise in the year ahead. The survey found the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now increased to 42.9%, the highest since April 2020, from 39.1% in September. The increase was broad-based across demographic groups but most notable among respondents with no more than a high school education and those with annual household incomes between $50-$100k.
Household spending plans rebounded in October. Median expected year-ahead household spending growth rose to 7.0% in October from 6.0% in September and 7.8% in August. The increase was broad-based but most pronounced for respondents with no more than a high school education.
Median expected growth in household income jumped to 4.3%, a series high, from 3.5% in September. The increase was most pronounced for those over the age of 60 and those with annual household incomes under $50k.