WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – It’s a week light on major data other than the August jobs report, the two momentum reports ISM’s manufacturing and services indexes – and a Conference Board consumer confidence measure more closely watched since the collapse of the UMich consumer sentiment reading for the month.
The optimists think confidence will sink by only about 5 points from July’s pandemic high point.
The abbreviated Jackson Hole symposium is over, consisting mainly of the Fed chair’s one big speech. The perception of Fed policy is not drastically different than it was beforehand but with a lot less certainty the September FOMC policy statement will say now is the time for tapering.
“There is considerable remaining ground to reach maximum employment,” was Chair Jay Powell’s bottom line. Friday’s jobs report is unlikely to change that, with around 800,000 additional payroll slots expected and perhaps a tenth or two improvement in the 5.4% July unemployment rate.
July’s 943,000 additional paychecks was not really that impressive, a couple of analysts told us. After various adjustments it was, they said, equivalent to maybe 400,000.
China’s massive container terminal, Meishan at the port of Ningpo, reopened last week after shocking the shipping world by closing Aug 11 because of one positive virus case among dockworkers. It will take a few weeks – repeat weeks – to clear the backlog, another supply chain disruption in the crucial buildup period for the holidays.
The NIAID’s Dr.Anthony Fauci made it perfectly clear Sunday, saying “I’m certain” everyone in America needs three Pfizer/Moderna shots and two J&J vacinnations. And he’s “astounded,” he told NBC, that 80 million of us have not yet gotten the first shot. If they would, we could get back to something approaching normal.
Elementary schools have reopened, and evidence grows of the dangers of infection to the unvaccinated students as their hospitalizations increase. In general, more masks can be seen returning every day. Caution about the outlook grows apace.
Ah, the outlook. Just take what we know today and extrapolate. So simple, if what we know today is relevant and our information is grounded in reality. Just listen to the economic news, read the analysts and then realize our information arrives via an information highway that could have been designed by Georges Seurat.
Take a minute-by-minute view of the day’s pointillist presentation of what’s happening through the magnifying glass of cable news and Faceboo and we’re spared the big picture, or any picture. Connect the dots? Good luck with that.
Does the Sunday night loss of electricity in Orleans Parish have any consequence for our economic future as September arrives? The losses from Hurricane Ida must include the shutdown of the region’s string of chemical and energy producers.How temporary is that going to be? Not to worry. Early Monday Asia equities are up.
Does Thursday’s expected upward revision to second-quarter productivity matter to any one? Increased output with fewer employed means what for future prosperity? Can debt replace national income? Or do our eyes glaze n incomprehension?
And so we come to what’s really happening this week, despite wanting to avert our eyes and uncross our fingers. By Wednesday Afghanistan will be left on its own and the end of the U.S. exit and how it was accomplished will be inscribed in the granite tablets of history.
As U.S. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy advised his troops Sunday, help out in writing that history. He wants them to repeat as often as possible that not all Americans got out, maybe. “We will then lean on each of you to communicate the human stories of our fellow countrymen still in Afghanistan by meeting and doing events with local veterans in your districts and continuing to message on TV and local media,” he said.
Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell told Fox Sunday the troop drawdown was the “worst policy decision,” and the exit “worse than Saigon.” Meanwhile some Democratic committee chairmen will be announcing hearings to rake over what happened and how it happened.
In an American political culture dedicated to exploiting anger, ignoring root causes and blind to the big picture and its implications for the common future, a lot of new material. .
This week’s upcoming U.S. data points follow below:
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA AND FEDERAL RESERVE EVENTS
Monday, Aug 30 – 10a ET US NAR July pending home sales (June -1.9%)
Monday, Aug 30 – 7:50p ET Japan industrial output
Tuesday, Aug 31 – 8:55a ET Redbook wkly retail activity
Tuesday, Aug 31 – 8:45a ET Aug ChiPMI (July 73.4)
Tuesday, Aug 31 – 9a ET June Case-Shiller Home Price Index Y/Y (+18% expected; May +16.6%)
Tuesday, Aug 31 – 10a ET Aug Conf Bred consumer confidence (124 expected; July 129.1)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 7a ET US MBA wkly mortgage apps (prvs %)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 815a ET ADP/Moody’s Aug private payrolls est
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 9a ET US FHFA house price index (Y/Y thru July +18.0%)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 9:45a ET Aug Markit final US mfg PMI
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 10:30a ET Aug Dallas Fed Mfg survey (July 27.3)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 10a ET ISM Aug mfg index (58.5 expected; June 59.5)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 10a ET US July construction spending (June +0.1%)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – 10:30a ET US EIA Wkly oil stocks (prvs -K bls)
Wednesday, Sept 1 – Noon ET Atl Fed’s Bostic speaks, Harvard Chapter
Thursday, Sept 2 – 7:30a ET US Challenger layoffs
Thursday, Sept 2 – 8:30a ET Wkly initial jobless benefit claims (prvs )
Thursday, Sept 2 – 8:30a ET July US Int’l trade bal in goods/svcs ($75.7 mln)
Thursday, Sept 2 – 8:30a ET Revised 2Q US productivity
Thursday, Sept 2 – 10a ET July US factory orders (June +1.5%)
Thursday, Sept 2 – noon ET Atl Fed’s Bostic speaks, Community Foundation
Friday, Sept 3 – 8:30a ET Aug US jobs report (July 943K)
Friday, Sept 3 – 10a ET Aug ISM US svcs index (59/5 expected; July 64.1%)
Friday, Sept 3 – 1p ET Baker-Hughes oil rig count (800K payrolls expected; prev US +3/503)
Friday, Sept 3 – Kansas City Southern shareholders decide on merger w/Canadian National
—
Contact this writer: denny@macenews.com. Opinions expressed are solely the author’s.
Content may appear first or exclusively on the Mace News premium service. For real-time delivery contact tony@macenews.com. Twitter headlines @macenewsmacro.