WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Half of the year over and the data mavens mostly take a week off.
The FOMC minutes on Wednesday won’t contain any surprises, with all the iterations of possible policy musings exhaustively weighed in Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s news conference and in the more than ample Fedspeak since.
The payrolls report Friday was strong on the surface yet weak in its acceleration component, meaning that when the usual August palaver about the chairman’s expiring term starts to bubble, there will as yet have not been a convincing approach to full employment.
The fact the unemployment rate went up in June, that those counted to be “not in the labor force” went up, that unemployment rates for construction and transportation were as high as 8.6%, suggested there’s a long slog ahead for underemployment.
ISM’s manufacturing guru Ralph Fiore had reminded reporters Thursday that the easing of supply disruptions will show up first in transportation and probably not until the end of this year. He also said the adjustment to a demand-pull economy is stalled because it’s impossible to expand capacity with a labor shortage.
It’s hard to recognize an economy in stasis when it’s masked by robust hiring, by supply chain problems exaggerating demand and by the pent-up consumer euphoria as vaccines do what they’re supposed to do. So all the straining to resume creates a “false dawn” effect when there’s actually twilight. Only the U.S. 10-year yield seems to see through the fog, staying under 1.5% as if to warn, don’t be fooled.
Which is why Wednesday’s JOLTS report would be so important had Congress given the Bureau of Labor Statistics enough money to make it current. The labor market churn it depicts has much higher resolution than the monthly jobs report. Unfortunately, its snapshot is too long delayed to have much current meaning.
As in so many areas of U.S. economic data, the measurement of pandemic recovery is mostly not happening with the timeliness to inform policymakers as to how to structure the next set of government initiatives. Without data, there is only dispute and speculation and action postponed. And as Fed Presidents Harker and Bostic told us in the previous week’s commentary, the nation has challenges galore that are being ignored.
The upcoming week’s data points are listed below:
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA AND FEDERAL RESERVE EVENTS
Monday, July 5 – Federal observance of Independence Day
Tuesday, July 6 – 9:45a ET Markit July US services PMI (June 64.8, May record 70.4)
Tuesday, July 6 – 10a ET US ISM June Non-Manufacturing index (May 64.0, Apr 62.7)
Wednesday, July 7 – 7a ET US MBA wkly mortgage apps (prvs -6.9%)
Wednesday, July 7 – 8:55a ET US wkly Redbook retail activity (prvs +18.2%)
Wednesday, July 7 – 10a ET May JOLTS job openings (Apr 9.3 mln)
Wednesday, July 7 – US EIA wkly oil stocks (prvs
Wednesday, July 7 – 2p ET FOMC minutes for June 15-16 meeting)
Wednesday, July 7 – 3:30p ET Atl Fed’s Bostic speaks to NABJ
Thursday, July 8 – 8:30a ET Wkly jobless benefit claims (prvs +364K)
Thursday, July 8 – 11a ET EIA wkly oil stocks (prvs -6..7 mln bls)
Thursday, July 8 – 3p ET – Fed’s May consumer credit (Apr +5/3%)
Friday, July 9 – 10a ET US May wholesale inventories (Apr +0.8%)
Friday, July 9 – 1p ET US wkly Baker-Hughes rig count (prvs US 475)
Sunday, July 11 – 9:20a ET Fed Vice Chair/Supervision Quarles speaks in Venice on financial stability and climate
Monday, July 12 – 9:30a NYFed’s Williams speaks, Bank of Israel
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Contact this writer: denny@macenews.com.
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