WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The week ahead features a little look-ahead and a lot of look back, with perhaps some hints at how the first quarter is performing and a lot about how the patient Federal Reserve hopes to see a continuing recovery.
The least informative of the lot may be Thursday’s update of the fourth quarter GDP growth reading last at 4.0%. That was a huge deceleration from the third quarter’s 33.4% and so far indications are that the deceleration is not continuing. January retail sales surprised with its strong 5.3% surge.
As of Thursday the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has first quarter growth at 9.3%. As recently as Feb 11 that tracker was at 4.5%. The St. Louis Fed sees even more aggressive growth, as of Friday, pegging it at 12.4% in the first quarter. The New York Fed Nowcast is at 8.1%.
What has leveled off are U.S. stocks, ending the week close to flat with the Dow gaining a little, Nasdaq and the S&P down a little. Bitcoin, on the other hand, up 6.89% on Friday alone, up to a record $55,683.
On the face of it, the upcoming week’s most insightful events should be the two days of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s Q&A before two congressional committees. Since he’s obliged to reflect the Monetary Policy Report’s outlook, however, there’s very little expectation for anything new. The Report, issued in advance on Friday, had nothing in it not already previewed by Powell himself in his post-FOMC news conference late last month, by the FOMC minutes published Wednesday or by any Fed speaker sentiments since, including Friday’s appearance on CNBC of New York Fed President John Williams. The watch words: “Wait and see” with any deviation from the Fed’s stand-still policy dependent on the path of the economy,
As characterized in last week’s preview, inflation fears are everywhere but in the data. The upcoming Friday report on personal income and spending will update the personal consumption expenditures price measure. The most recent CPI, which does influence inflation expectations, saw its driving force, the shelter index, decelerate to a 1.6% annual change.
The factory economy, about a tenth of U.S. economy, has seen its durables production fall 7.0% last year, with a half a percent drop in December and continuing setbacks in civilian airplanes. The January reading will accompany the revised GDP report Thursday morning.
New home sales get a January reading Wednesday. The rate of production in December for single family houses was at an annual rate of 842,000, up 15.2% over last year. Since new production pushes used homes on to the market, Friday’s report on existing home sales for January could manage only a 0.6% gain, hamstrung by the meager supply. Inventory was down nearly 26% from a year earlier. January’s 6.69 million sales rate could be 20% higher if there was more supply and more choices, U.S. National Association of Realtors Chief Economy Lawrence Yun said.
The entire week’s data lineup is below.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA
Monday, Feb 22 – 9:30a ET Confirmation hearing for AG Nominee Merrick Garland
Monday, Feb 22 – 10a ET Leading Economic Indicators
Monday, Feb 22 – US House Budget Comte marks up American Rescue Plan Act
Tuesday, Feb 23 – 8:55a ET Redbook same-store wkly retail sales
Tuesday, Feb 23 – 9:00a Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Tuesday, Feb 23 – US FHFA home price index
Tuesday, Feb 23 – Pres Biden meets virtually with Canada PM Trudeau
Tuesday, Feb 23 – 10a Fed’s Powell semiannual testimony to Senate Banking Comte
Tuesday, Feb 23 – Dallas Fed non-mfg index
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 7:00a MBA wkly mortgage applications
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 10a New Fed’s Powell Q&A at House Fin Svcs Comte
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 10a US New Home Sales
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 10:30a US EIA oil stocks
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 10:30a Fed’s Brainard speaks
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 1p Fed’s Clarida speaks
Wednesday, Feb 24 – 4p Fed’s Clarida speaks
Thursday, Feb 25 – 8:30a US Jan durable goods orders
Thursday, Feb 25 – 8:30a US revised 4Q GDP
Thursday, Feb 25 – 8:30a US wkly initial jobless benefit claims
Thursday, Feb 25 – 10a US NAR pending home sales
Thursday, Feb 25 – 10:30a Fed’s Bullard speaks
Friday, Feb 26 – 8;30A Advance US trade in goods
Friday, Feb 26 – US Jan Personal Income, Spending
Friday, Feb 26 – 9:45a Chicago PMI
Friday, Feb 26 – 10a Final UMich sentiment survey
Friday, Feb 26 – 1:30p Baker-Hughes oil rig count
Separately, from Extract Analytics, the outlook for the SPX:
Content may appear first or exclusively on the Mace News premium service. For real-time delivery contact tony@macenews.com. Twitter headlines @macenewsmacro.