WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – A relatively quiet week on the economic data front in the coming week, with the FOMC minutes replay machine giving us the origin story of all the FedSpeak we’ve been hearing again, and again, and …
The end-of-week victory for “transitory” was the most notable development looking backwards. The prophets of accelerating inflation and tapering lost the argument in the end and Jay Powell’s understated persistence came out on top.
For one of those prophets, a certain former Treasury secretary who railed again Friday about the ominous portents he saw within the April CPI report, it was an especially bad week. No less than a Fed governor, the newbie Chris Waller, pooh-poohed his old secular stagnation hypothesis saying everyone he’s talked to see the country in the midst of its biggest-ever productivity boost, triggered by pandemic necessities. All companies now are tech companies, he said.
The picture of meme dreams versus fundamental revolutionary generational developments stayed hazy, even as Tesla stock climbed out of the pit at week’s end, and Dogecoin became one of the most bought cryptocurrencies, rising 44% on Friday alone for good measure. Has it been only a week since Elon Musk’s “hustle” skit on SNL, a joke about a joke that’s no longer a joke?
Questions about inflation dominated the White House briefing by Council of Economics Chair Cecilia Rouse on Friday. When economic questions reach that forum, it’s usually a sign the wave has already passed days earlier. And so all those terrifying increases in metals prices seemed to be history. Copper ended the week down 1.2% though from all-time highs; aluminum was off 3%. With the Colonial pipeline back, gasoline futures leveled. Remember corn prices skyrocketing? That was so Thursday, the day prices peaked at 7:45a ET. At week’s end corn futures were off 4.4%. Even lumber, the experts say, is poised to get cheaper.
As if the past week’s unending FedSpeak repetition wasn’t enough – yes, we get it, substantial further progress etc – the week ahead has another dozen Fed appearances. Only a few analysts seemed to be catching up with events, upgrading growth and consumption in view of the surprise from the CDC. Fed speechwriters perhaps will follow, perhaps inching recovery forecasts a little bit forward now that the casinos can take down their Plexiglas barriers and firms carry away their Lexan sneezeguards. Walmart was ahead of the pack in welcoming back fully vaccinated customers without masks.
Housing starts for April on Tuesday a month when construction supposedlyhits its stride, will again be bittersweet at best regardless of the number. Construction jobs, remember, did not increase in the April jobs report and were still nearly 200,000 below a year-ago level. The housing industry can’t meet demand and younger Americans are being priced out of starter homes, even if any were available. Next Friday’s Realtor’s existing home sales report will again document the new-to-used pipeline is paralyzed, disappointing generations that finally and desperately want to get off the sidelines of life.
All the upcoming week’s data points and Fed events are listed below.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA AND FEDERAL RESERVE EVENTS
Monday, May 17 – 8:30a ET US May Empire State Mfg Index
Monday, May 17 – 10a Atl Fed’s Bostic opening remarks at Atl Fed
Monday, May 17 – 10a US NAHB/WF May housing market sales index
Monday, May 17 – 10:05a Fed Vice Chair Clarida speak sat Atl Fed conference
Monday, May 17 – 12:30p Atl Fed’s Bostic speaks at Atl Fed conference
Monday, May 17 – 4p US Treasury March TICS rpt
Monday, May 17 – 6p Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks, at Dallas Fed
Tuesday, May 18 – 8:30a US April housing starts
Tuesday, May 18 – 8:55a Johnson-Redbook wkly retail activity
Tuesday, May 18 – 10a US 1Q E-Commerce retail sales
Tuesday, May 18 – 11a Atl Fed’s Bostic opening remarks, at Atl Fed conference
Tuesday, May 18 – 11:05a Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks, at Atl Fed conerence
Tuesday, May 18 – 12:30p Atl Fed’s Bostic speaks, at Atl Fed conference
Wednesday, May 19 – 7a US MBA wkly mortgage applications
Wednesday, May 19 – 10a St Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks, OMFIF
Wednesday, May 19 – 10:30a US EIA weekly oil stocks
Wednesday, May 19 – Fed’s Minutes of Apr 27-28 FOMC meet
Thursday, May 20 – 8:30a Philly Fed May mfg index
Thursday, May 20 – 830a DoL wkly jobless benefit initial claims
Thursday, May 20 – 10a US Conf Brd Leading Indicator for April
Thursday, May 20 – 10a US Census Bureau qtrly services survey
Thursday, May 20 – 6:05p Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks, at Dallas Fed
Friday, May 21 – 9:15a Dallas Fed’s Kaplan opening remarks, at Dallas Fed
Friday, May 21 – 9:30a Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks, at Dallas Fed
Friday, May 21 – 10a US NAR April existing home sales
Friday, May 21 – 10:30a Baker-Hughes wkly oil rig count
Friday, May 21 – Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks, concluding remarks, at Dallas Fed
Separately, from Extract Analytics, a look at what’s ahead for SPX:
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com.
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