WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – Is anyone watching economic data in the week ahead, when there are least 12 Fedspeak appearances, a restless 10-year yield, the background threat of a wider Covid-19 surge?
Sure, we all have to take durable goods orders (Wednesday) and new home sales (Tuesday) and personal income (Friday) into account, even if it’s lagging data in a new era of tsunami fiscal stimulus hitting bank accounts and mailboxes.
February’s trade in goods (Friday)? East and West Coast ports are backed up with a couple dozen container ships floating in wait outside the port of LA, a container shortage hampering shipping, a container on the East Coast costing up to $10,000. February seems a long time ago.
U.S. existing home sales (Monday) probably won’t disappoint. The third revision of GDP (Thursday) probably will be ignored. As will be the fourth quarter current account (Tuesday), though it could be argued that it, like the productivity reports, are far more important than most of the rest.
Higher-frequency data, like weekly initial jobless benefit claims (Thursday), the Redbook same-store retail sales (Tuesday) and the latest mortgage interest rate (Wednesday) are more interesting lately, and those claims data are still ominous, pushing that full-employment date out further even as the impressive rate of vaccinations bring it closer. Inoculations may hit 200 million by the Biden 100-day point, double what was promised.
All of the upcoming scheduled data points and Fed appearances on listed below.
Back to the two factors that really matter and will continue to even beyond the week ahead, first, that tsunami of government money comforting household finances and beyond, to small business balance sheets and through much of the entire economy, and second, that lingering threat that all this progress will yet be blunted by a resurgence of Covid-19 happening in 14 states, in much of Europe and elsewhere.
In his Friday WSJ op-ed Fed Chair Jay Powell said the situation is “much improved.” In his post-FOMC news conference Wednesday he said the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and the funds authorized by the previous $3.4 trillion worth of congressional aid has accelerated the approach back to full employment. No one asked him by how much.
On the one hand business reopenings have spread coast to coast. On the other hand spring-breakers are heading back home across the country where virus mitigation is already slackened and there is less defense against whatever they’re bringing with them. Cross currents lapping across the nation, not last month’s data, is what will count in the next few weeks.
Separately, the upcoming week’s outlook for the SPX:
Upcoming Economic Data and Federal Reserve Events
Monday, March 22 – 8:30a ET Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index
Monday, March 22 – 10a US NAR existing home sales
Monday, March 22 – Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks
Monday, March 22 – 9a Fed Chair Powell on BIS panel on innovation
Monday, March 22 – 5:30p Fed’s Bowman speaks on monpol
Tuesday, March 23 – 8:30a Philly Fed non-manufacturing index
Tuesday, March 23 – 8:55a Johnson-Redbook retail same-store sales
Tuesday, March 23 – 8:30a US 4Q current account
Tuesday, March 23 – 9a St Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks at London Stock Exchange
Tuesday, March 23 – Fed’s Powell/Tsy’s Yellen testify on CARES Act
Tuesday, March 23 – 10a US Feb New Home Sales
Tuesday, March 23 – 10a Richmond Fed Fed survey
Tuesday, March 23 – 2:45p NYFed’s Williams Q&A
Tuesday, March 23 – 6p ChiFed’s Evans speaks on economy
Wednesday, March 24 – 7a US MBA wkly mortgage applications
Wednesday, March 24 – 8:30a US advance durable goods orders
Wednesday, March 24 – 8:50a Philly Fed’s Harker speaks
Wednesday, March 24 – 9:45a Markit US mfg & svcs PMI
Wednesday, March 24 – 10a Fed’s Powell/Tsy’s Yellen testify/Sen Banking on CARES
Wednesday, March 24 – 10:30a US EIA oil stocks
Wednesday, March 24 – 1:35p NYFed’s Williams Q&A
Wednesday, March 24 – 6p ChiFed’s Evans on economic outlook
Thursday, March 25 – 8:30a US 4Q GDP final revision
Thursday, March 25 – 8:30a US wkly initial jobless claims
Thursday, March 25 – Noon ET AtlFed’s Bostic speaks at ECNY
Friday, March 26 – 8:30a US int’l trade in goods
Friday, March 26 – 8:30a Personal Income and Spending
Friday, March 26 – 10a UMich consumer sentiment
Friday, March 26 – 1p Baker-Hughes oil rig count
Friday, March 26 – 1p ChiFed’s Evans speaks on economy
Friday, March 26 – 7p SanFranFed’s Daly speaks on monpol
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com.
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