By Denny Gulino
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The corona virus particle is identical around the world as is the basic physiology of the human organism it has evolved to use as a host and yet the reaction to its arrival and spread are so different and along timelines that can vary by months.
Australia announced Thursday it will keep its borders closed to visitors for at least another three months, maybe four.
Brazil, the world’s poster child for laissez-faire virus control, has open borders, a health minister fired for suggesting more restrictions and a successor who blames the increase in deaths on an increase in testing.
In Ecuador, there have been nearly 7,000 deaths in one city, Guayaquil, in two weeks, more than had been typical for three to four months. Wrapped bodies are being stacked in houses. Yet the official death toll from the virus for the entire country is a little over 400. Authorities are just now awakening to what’s happening and how well-to-do tourists from Spain were the carriers.
In Spain, Italy and France there are cautious preparations for some relaxation of social distancing in perhaps two and a half weeks although each day still brings another 10,000 or so new virus cases.
Manila has extended its lockdown to last at least another six weeks.
Singapore that had been doing so well and has now regressed – as the virus tears through guest-worker barracks – has some of the most stringent restrictions in the world. For instance, “An individual must not meet another individual not living in the same place of residence for any social purpose.”
In China, TV networks show Wuhan, the first epicenter, with a population of 11 million, opening the doors of commerce once again. Not much in the news is the northeast city of Harbin, with about the same population, which has been placed under lockdown. It seems a foreign visitor spread the virus there, a visitor from New York.
In the United States, despite presidential news conferences almost every night, there is still only a fuzzy concept of virus time. When President Trump says almost every night echoed by the vice president that the virus will soon be behind us, what is the public understanding of what “soon” means?
“We do believe, by early summer, we could be in a much better place as a nation with much of this coronavirus epidemic behind us,” was the latest version in the evening briefing, in the words of Vice President Mike Pence.
There is a growing indication that with all the talk of a May 1 turning point – the end of the 30-day mitigation guidelines – and with the defiance of the president by the governor of Georgia, that the nation’s leadership is losing control of the U.S. timeline.
Georgia’s new era begins Friday. The state’s peak of virus cases has not yet arrived.
Defiance?
That’s not a word the president likes to hear.
“I want the states to open more than he does – much more than he does. But I didn’t like to see spas at this early stage, nor did the doctors,” President Trump said in the latest evening briefing.
“I wasn’t happy with it. And I wasn’t happy with Brian Kemp. I wasn’t at all happy, because – and I could have done something about it if I wanted to – but I’m saying let the governors do it. But I wasn’t happy with Brian Kemp. Spas, beauty parlors, tattoo parlors – no.”
The reporter kept asking, “Are you surprised he defied you on that?
The president answered: “No, he didn’t. No, he didn’t defy me at all. That’s your language. He didn’t defy me.”
“Well, I mean, he’s not –”
“You know what happened? the president asked. “I said, ‘You make your own decision.’ I told him that. I said, ‘You’re not in the guidelines, but I’m letting you make your own decision. But I want people to be safe, and I want the people in Georgia to be safe, and I don’t want this thing to flare up because you’re deciding to do something that is not in the guidelines.’”
There was still more. “I could have stopped him, but I decided – and we all agreed – they got to watch it closely. So we’ll see what happens.
“If you ask me, am I happy about it? I’m not happy about it, and I’m not happy about Brian Kemp.”
So Gov. Kemp is going ahead with a relaxation of physical distancing starting now in businesses where physical distancing is not possible.
It seems he’ll soon have company in other statehouses. Because Georgia is in a loose coalition with five other southern states, all of which want to reopen business soon rather than later.
The governors of Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama and Mississippi have all been talking with each other and with Georgia about how soon they can reopen. Florida Gov. Ron Desantis told Fox News they are all on the “same page.”
The IHME models, often cited by the Task Force, project that Georgia shouldn’t think about reopening until late June.
Any increased spread of the virus because of Friday’s reopening will not be evident any time soon because Georgia is not doing a lot of testing. And cases there that are now showing no symptoms won’t be reaching the hospital for another two to three weeks.
The IHME model projects the U.S. death toll will be about 67,600 on August 4, only if the current social distancing regime stays in place that long. The U.S. death toll is passing through 50,000 in the next 24 hours and the social distancing regime requirement seems to be already evaporating in the South.
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com
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