–Trump-Xi Talk, Getting Ready for Phase One Signing
–‘Quadruple Witching’ and Record Stocks Close Go Together
–Trump: No President Has ‘Done as Much’ For Religion
By Denny Gulino
THE WHITE HOUSE (MaceNews) – The shortest day of the year Saturday. the darkest day in other words, is a big deal in the natural world. It means on Sunday the massive change for many growing things begins, with bud formation triggered that will later erupt in spring.
Washington State’s Dec. 21 is an hour shorter even than for Washington D.C.
In short, for much of the world around us, Saturday is even more important than Friday’s quadruple witching day when stock market volume skyrockets. Friday was the heaviest trading day of the year. And what a great day for volume to skyrocket, when all U.S. stock indexes hit still more record highs.
Great, unless you’re among the Tesla shorts. Even then, with a $405 close, Tesla could have been worse, like it was a little while ago when it reached $413.
Here at the White House, characteristically, President Trump commemorated another great day with a dig at CNN.
“Economy is GREAT, Big Stock Market uptick today. Best ranking in 20 years admits CNN!” he tweeted.
He acknowledged in another tweet a more stinging development, an editorial endorsement of impeachment and removal from office of a voice of many evangelicals, Christianity Today, the magazine founded by Billy Graham but whose family is no longer involved. One of the president’s tweets on the subject thanked Graham’s son Franklin for saying who his father voted for; Trump.
“I guess the magazine, ‘Christianity Today,’ is looking for Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, or those of the socialist/communist bent, to guard their religion,” Trump wrote. “How about Sleepy Joe? The fact is, no President has ever done what I have done for Evangelicals, or religion itself!”
Another tweet the markets may have welcomed to a greater extent was the one Trump sent saying he talked in the morning to China’s President Xi.
“Had a very good talk with President Xi of China concerning our giant Trade Deal,” Trump wrote. “China has already started large scale purchases of agricultural product & more. Formal signing being arranged.”
The White House hopes that signing by U.S trade ambassador Bob Lighthizer and China’s top trade negotiator Liu He – not Trump and Xi, incidentally – will be happening as soon as three weeks or so.
Trump’s tweet also said he and Xi “talked about North Korea, where we are working with China, & Hong Kong (progress!).” The White House provided no other details.
Since the Phase One agreement does not take effect until a month after signing, U.S.-China trade volume is likely to continue shrinking at least until near the end of 2020’s first quarter, a strain for West Coast ports, trucking companies and their drivers.
By then it may be more clear how much of the damage already done to trade with China is irreversible and how realistic are any hopes of robust Phase Two talks.
Likewise, ratification by the U.S., Mexico and Canada of the successor to NAFTA, the USMCA, will not become effective likely until the second quarter.
By then, new U.S. tariffs threatened for some additional European products, like cars and trucks, may have been imposed that will make those already being collected on $7.5 billion in goods look like a rounding error.
Any U.S. deal with the UK may have to wait until after year-long negotiations with the EU on post-Brexit trade relations with the UK, to be triggered by the expected split EU next month.
So investor relief at Phase One and USMCA progress so evident in late December may have steeper hills to climb in the New Year – again.
Meanwhile the promise of more stock buybacks and a rush into the market by small investors are supporting hopes for more good times to come in January – unless there’s a North Korean holiday surprise as hinted by Chairman Kim Jong-un.
Hey, this is getting complicated. Can’t we stick to something simple, like quadruple witching?
The full-day U.S. government close for Christmas Eve granted by President Trump, instead of the more usual half day off, doesn’t affect the early close for most markets, nor the reopenings at 6 p,m. Christmas day for a lot of trading. It did move the U.S. factory orders report from Tuesday to Monday, still at 8:30 ET.
And yes, we don’t want to let the fact the government will be open Monday pass by, unappreciated, Trump waited until almost the last minute to sign the $738 billion Pentagon spending bill – which includes the creation of the Space Force – when he got to Joint Base Andrews Friday night on his way to Mar a Lago, less than five hours before the midnight deadline. Otherwise a lot of government would be shut down without his signatures on the appropriation measures.
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com